NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold gained more than 3% in the first month of 2014 following its worst trading year in three decades, but for anyone trying to determine if this suggests the bear market is over and prices are stabilizing, brokerage firm Marex Spectron offers an answer.
"This, my friends, is the gold market of 2014. Where much is promised and very little is delivered. We are, as I have said we would be time and time again, still rangebound and going nowhere fast," David Govett, head of precious metals at Marex Spectron, wrote Monday in a note to investors. "A great market for day traders and algos and a pretty dreadful market for anyone seeking a trend or a sustained move."
Govett, who writes daily research on the movement in gold prices, is saying that 2014 may see some upside swings, but it could also have trading days that erase those gains. This essentially would leave the long-term investor without much to show for the year.
Govett said triggers for those price swings will be the equity market, emerging markets and changes in the U.S. dollar.
"[B]ut invariably ends up back where it started a day or two later. You may enjoy this sort of market, you may hate this sort of market, but get used to it, because I believe it will be with us for a while to come," Govett wrote.
If you're deciding whether to allocate some of your portfolio into gold, it may be worth considering Govett's take. Additionally, the World Gold Council, in a meeting with reporters Monday morning in New York, said it expects gold to encounter challenges in 2014, but also sees the prices starting to stabilize from its pullback from the September 2011 high.
Put another way, though the World Gold Council is saying it doesn't expect gold to continue to tumble like it did in 2014, "stabilizing" means the market could be finding a comfortable trading range, which will reduce the high volatility market participants witnessed in 2013.
With that said, Gold prices were jumping Monday as major U.S. equity markets were stumbling.
Gold for April delivery at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was gaining $20 to $1,259.80. The gold price traded as high as $1,264.70 and as low as $1,240.40 an ounce, while the spot price was increasing $19.12, or 1.5%.
-- Written by Joe Deaux in New York.
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