Some people will ask: What if California raises the limit on the 40,000 stickers, to issue another 10,000 or 20,000 or whatever? Oh sure, then the story changes. But I have no knowledge that they will do this. Where are the signs? Has anybody in the government actually proposed this? So we can't just assume that the law will change without any signs that it will.
This puts pressure on the other car companies to develop all-electric cars that can compete with Tesla. As I have written many times before, I think GM and BMW are first in line to launch such cars in the 2016-2017 timeframe, with Nissan following. Other car companies? Probably, but there are no clear signs. They seem focused on mild plug-in hybrids, such as what Ford is offering right now, today. This is basically the VW-Audi strategy for most of what they will be offering in 2015 and beyond.
Toyota, Hyundai and Honda are focused on hydrogen fuel-cell car development for launch in the coming quarters and years. Mercedes, too, but with less specifics on deck.
In the meantime, already now starting in a few months, Tesla gets a jolt from the California green carpool lane stickers running out, sticking it to the competition.
At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.
This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.