Netflix Lags as Tesla Leads Momentum Race

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The eight momentum stocks I have been tracking began 2014 with mixed performances questioning the sustainability of continued new highs for the stock market. Tesla Motors (TSLA) may be up 9.1% on the new year but not without extreme volatility as this week's range for the stock has been between $136.67 and $172.23 as negative stock specific news was offset by positive news.

On the opposite side of the ledger Netflix (NFLX) is down 10.3% so far in 2014 and its earnings report Jan. 22 should sort out whether its momentum will return. Following its last earnings report Netflix popped to its all-time intraday high at $389.16 on Oct.22 then traded as low as $309.20 on Oct. 29 and this trading range remains intact.

Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) traded down to $529.88 on Monday then up to $560.20 yesterday as Apple's deal with China Mobile takes shape. At the low the stock was upgraded to buy from hold as I wrote about Apple in Wrong Calls: Intel, America Online and Apple on Tuesday.

Here are my buy-and-trade parameters for my eight momentum stocks:

Apple ($557.36 vs. $561.02 on Dec. 31 down 0.7%) set a 52-week high at $575.15 on Dec. 5 then traded as low as $529.88 on Monday and is above its 200-day simple moving average at $478.53. The weekly chart profile is neutral with its five-week modified moving average at $542.86 and its 200-week SMA at $430.47.

Apple has a buy rating according to www.ValuEngin.com is 13.3% overvalued with a gain of 14.7% over the last 12 months. My annual value level is $517.05 with a monthly pivot at $549.13 and an annual risky level at $586.06. Above are my new semiannual risky levels at $657.40 and $666.94.

Amazon.com (AMZN) ($395.87 vs. $398.79 on Dec. 31 down 0.7%) set a new all-time intraday high at $406.89 on Jan. 9 continuing its momentum run well above its 200-day SMA at $312.94. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week modified moving average at $387.39 and its 200-week SMA at $221.82, which maintains its momentum status.

Amazon has a hold rating is 79.4% overvalued with a gain of 45.6% over the last 12 months. The stock's 12 month trailing price to earnings ratio remains extremely elevated at 507.5. My semiannual and annual values are $359.11, $351.24 and $334.95 with a quarterly pivot at $402.56 and monthly risky level at $412.18.

Chipotle (CMG) ($532.25 vs. $532.78 on Dec. 31 down 0.1%) set its all-time intraday high at $550.28 on Nov. 18 with the 200-day SMA at $430.26. The weekly chart is positive but overbought but a weekly close below its five-week MMA at $526.42 shifts the chart to negative with the 200-week SMA at $312.18.

Chipotle has a buy rating is 23.7% overvalued with a gain of 79% over the last 12 months. My quarterly value level is $461.71 with its semiannual and monthly pivots at $510.69 and $545.92 and semiannual risky level at $601.33.

Google (GOOG) ($1148.62 vs. $1120.71 on Dec. 31 up 2.5%) set a new all-time intraday high at $1155.00 on Wednesday with its 200-day SMA at $929.01. The weekly chart is a positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at $1092.26 and the 200-week SMA at $670.49, which maintains its momentum status.

Google has a hold rating is 45.1% overvalued and is up 58.5% over the last 12 months. Annual and quarterly value levels are $1043.30, $978.09 and $1015.23 with monthly and weekly pivots at $1107.37 and $1145.67.

LinkedIn (LNKD) ($216.00 vs. $216.83 on Dec. 31 down 0.4%) has lost its momentum status having moved sideways to down since setting its all-time intraday high at $257.56 on Sept. 19 and has been trading back and forth around its 200-day SMA at $215.75 since Dec. 18. The weekly chart stays negative on a close this week below its five-week MMA at $219.89.

Linkedin has a buy rating and has a gain of 83.2% over the last 12 months. The stock has an elevated 12 month tailing P/E ratio at 568.4. My weekly value level is $210.38 with monthly and quarterly risky levels are $233.93 and $265.34.

Netflix ($330.38 vs. $368.17 on Dec. 31 down 10.3%) set its all-time intraday high at $389.16 on Oct. 22 and is below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at $359.46 and $353.88 and above its 200-day SMA at $278.41. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $347.32 and its 200-week SMA at $168.21.

Netflix has a strong buy rating is 5.8% overvalued with a gain of 224.9% over the last 12 months. The stock has an elevated 12 trailing price-to-earnings ratio at 167.7. My semiannual and annual value levels are $272.38 and $242.14 with quarterly and semiannual pivots at $325.48 and $328.21 with a monthly risky level at $383.83.

Priceline.com (PCLN) ($1172.86 vs. $1162.40 on Dec. 31 up 0.9%) set its all-time intraday high at $1198.75 on Nov. 29 then traded as low as $1113.01 on Jan. 6. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at $1149.66 with its 200-week SMA at $598.59. A weekly close below $1149.66 would shift the weekly chart to negative ending the momentum run for this stock.

Priceline has a buy rating is 26.5% overvalued with a gain of 76.8% over the last 12 months. Semiannual and annual value levels are $1113.17, $1010.25 and $925.01 with quarterly and monthly risky levels at $1192.75 and $1309.95.

Tesla Motors ($164.13 vs. $150.43 on Dec. 31 up 9.1%) set its all-time intraday high as $194.50 on Sept. 30 then declined to $116.10 into Nov. 26 then returned to momentum status in mid-Dec. and traded as high as $172.23 on Wednesday. Throughout this volatile ride the stock stayed above its 200-day SMA, now at $127.68. The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at $149.97.

Tesla has a hold rating is 13.8% overvalued with a gain of 384.2% over the last 12 months. My quarterly value level is $142.81 with a monthly risky level at $232.64.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

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This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

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