Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo Headline Earnings

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- After the first full week of 2014 the S&P 500 is down just 0.3% for the year, while the SPDR Finance (XLF) is up 0.8%. Today I am providing my buy-and-trade analysis for 12 components of this finance ETF that report quarterly results this week. Nine of the 12 out-performed the finance ETF led by two of the four ''too big to fail' money center banks, Bank of America (BAC) up 7.7% since the end of 2013 and Citigroup (C) up 5% year-to-date.

The only bank that does not have a year-to-date gain is 'too big to fail' JPMorgan (JPM), up a penny.

There are three banks that have shrugged off the entire financial crisis and traded to new all-time intra-day highs or close to new highs last week. JPMorgan is still below its all-time high at $67.17 set in early-2000. The fourth 'too big to fail' money center bank Wells Fargo (WFC) traded to a new all-time intra-day high at $46.20 on Thursday. Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) traded to a new all-time intra-day high at $46.03 on Thursday.

The finance sector is 23% overvalued in a stock market where 84.4% of all stocks are overvalued with 53% overvalued by 20% or more. Among the 12 regional banks 11 are overvalued by more than 20% with four overvalued by more than 40% with Citigroup the most overvalued by 53.7%.

I give the finance sector an equal-weight rating as 84.3% of the 2963 stocks in the sector have '3-Engine' hold ratings.

The SPDR Finance ETF ($22.03) set a new multi-year intra-day high at $22.10 on Jan. 9. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week modified moving average at $21.53 and the 200-week simple moving average at $16.16. My monthly and semiannual value levels are $21.42, $20.24 and $19.44 with a weekly risky level at $22.17 and a quarterly risky level at $23.38.

On the graph below I show the Fibonacci retracement levels for the finance ETF and note that the 50% retracement level at $22.07 has been tested. In other words, this ETF has recouped 50% of the loss suffered from the May 2007 high at $38.18 down to the early-March 2009 low of $5.95.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Given positive reactions to this week's bank earnings reports the upside is to the 61.8% retracement level at $25.87. Given negative reactions the downside is to the 38.2% retracement at $18.26.

Bank of America ($16.77 vs. $15.57 on Dec. 31 up 7.7%) will report quarterly results premarket on Wednesday and analysts expect the company to report earnings of 27 cents per share. After being booted from the Dow Industrial Average, Bank of America traded to a multi-year intra-day high at $16.92 on Thursday. The stock has a hold rating is 20.5% overvalued with a gain of 42.4% over the last 12 months and is trading well above its 200-day SMA at $14.03. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $15.74 and its 200-week SMA $11.48. My semiannual value level is $10.69 with a monthly pivot at $16.57 and weekly and quarterly risky levels at $16.95 and $18.48.

BB&T (BBT) ($38.66 vs. $37.32 on Dec. 31 up 3.6%) will report quarterly results premarket on Thursday and analysts expect the company to report earnings of 72 cents a share. The stock traded to a multi-year intra-day high at $38.77 on Friday and is above its 200-day SMA at $33.92. BB&T has a hold rating is 27.5% overvalued with a gain of 26.6% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $36.31 and its 200-week SMA at $29.08. My semiannual value levels are $36.05 and $35.32 with monthly, weekly and quarterly risky levels at $38.91, $39.06 and $41.09.

Citigroup ($54.72 vs. $52.11 on Dec. 31 up 5%) will report quarterly results premarket on Thursday and analysts expect the company to report earnings of $1.01 a share. The stock traded to a multi-year intra-day high at $55.28 on last Thursday and is above its 200-day SMA at $49.87. Citigroup has a hold rating is 53.7% overvalued with a gain of 27.8% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive with its five-week MMA at $52.42 and its 200-week SMA at $39.88. My semiannual value level is $48.06 with a monthly pivot at $54.42 and weekly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $55.18, $58.40 and $62.72.

Commerce Bancshares($45.26 vs. $44.91 on Dec. 31 up 0.8%) will report quarterly results premarket tomorrow and analysts expect the company to report earnings of 71 cents a share. The stock traded to an all-time intra-day high at $46.03 on Friday, nearly had a 'key reversal' and is above its 200-day SMA at $42.19. Commerce bank has a hold rating is 20.6% overvalued with a gain of 29.1% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is neutral with the five-week MMA at $44.56 and its 200-week SMA at $35.89 with declining momentum. My weekly and semiannual value levels are $43.17 and $41.98 with a quarterly pivot at $44.51 and semiannual and monthly risky level at $47.50 and $48.92.

Comerica (CMA) ($47.80 vs. $47.54 on Dec. 31 up 0.5%) will report quarterly results premarket on Friday and analysts expect the company to report earnings of 74 cents a share. The stock traded to a multi-year intra-day high at $48.69 on Dec. 26 and is above its 200-day SMA at $41.13. Comerica has a hold rating is 46.7% overvalued with a gain of 48.9% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $46.12 and its 200-week SMA at $34.97. My semiannual value level is $44.96 with weekly and quarterly pivots at $48.15 and $48.56 and semiannual and monthly risky levels at $49.39 and $49.47.

Capital One (COF) ($78.02 vs. $76.61 on Dec. 31 up 1.8%) will report quarterly results after-hours on Thursday and analysts expect the company to report earnings of $1.54 a share. The stock traded to a multi-year intra-day high at $78.49 on Tuesday and is above its 200-day SMA at $66.17. Capital One has a hold rating is 45.2% overvalued with a gain of 24.1% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $74.31 and its 200-week SMA at $52.37. My semiannual value level is $73.98 with a weekly pivot at $78.34 and monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at $79.90, $81.94 and $83.28.

Huntington Banc  (HBAN) ($9.79 vs. $9.65 on Dec. 31 up 1.5%) will report quarterly results premarket on Thursday and analysts expect the company to report earnings of 17 cents a share. The stock traded to a multi-year intra-day high at $9.87 on Thursday and is above its 200-day SMA at $8.34. The bank has a hold rating is 47.9% overvalued with a gain of 46.8% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at $9.41 and its 200-week SMA at $6.64. My semiannual value level is $8.80 with a quarterly pivot at $9.83 and weekly, monthly and semiannual monthly risky levels at $9.99, $10.15 and $10.67.

JPMorgan ($58.49 vs. $58.48 on Dec. 31 up a penny) will report quarterly results premarket tomorrow and analysts expect the company to report earnings of $1.29 a share. The stock traded to a multi-year intra-day high at $59.46 on Jan. 6 and is above its 200-day SMA at $53.25. JP Morgan has a hold rating is 20.7% overvalued with a gain of 26.7% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $57.09 with its 200-week SMA at $42.94. My semiannual and annual value levels are $51.64 and $49.59 monthly, weekly and quarterly risky levels at $60.11, $60.33 and $63.43.

Peoples United (PBCT) ($15.38 vs. $15.12 on Dec. 31 up 1.7%) will report quarterly results afterhours on Thursday and analysts expect the company to report earnings of 20 cents a share. The stock traded to a multi-year intra-day high at $15.70 on Friday and is above its 200-day SMA at $14.41. The bank has a hold rating is 12.3% overvalued with a gain of 22% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive with the five-week MMA at $14.94 and its 200-week SMA at $13.19. Quarterly and semiannual value levels are $14.26 and $12.53 with a semiannual pivot at $15.13 and a monthly risky level at $16.19.

PNC Financial (PNC) ($78.77 vs. $77.58 on Dec. 31 up 1.5%) will report quarterly results premarket on Thursday and analysts expect the company to report earnings of $1.64 a share. The stock traded to a multi-year intra-day high at $79.29 on Thursday and is above its 200-day SMA at $73.10. PNC has a hold rating is 21.7% overvalued with a gain of 28.8% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $76.81 and its 200-week SMA at $62.08. My semiannual and annual value levels are $76.54, $66.47 and $65.58 with a quarterly pivot at $78.78 and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at $79.17, $81.22 and $85.01.

SunTrust Banks (STI) ($38.39 vs. $36.81 on Dec. 31 up 4.3%) will report quarterly results premarket on Friday and analysts expect the company to report earnings of 70 cents a share. The stock traded to a multi-year intra-day high at $38.41 on Friday and is above its 200-day SMA at $33.13. The bank has a hold rating is 33.5% overvalued with a gain of 34.2% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at $36.33 and its 200-week SMA at $26.85. My semiannual value levels are $36.34 and $36.17 with a weekly pivot at $37.17 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at $38.83 and $42.62.

Wells Fargo ($45.94 vs. $45.40 on Dec. 31 up 1.2%) will report quarterly results premarket tomorrow and analysts expect the company to report earnings of 98 cents a share. The stock traded to an all-time intra-day high at $46.20 on Thursday and is above its 200-day SMA at $41.73. Wells has a hold rating is 22% overvalued with a gain of 29.8% over the last 12 months. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $44.66 with its 200-week SMA at $32.69. My semiannual value levels are $42.32 and $40.96 with weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at $46.22, $47.63 and $49.48.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

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This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

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