Strategy: Buy Tesla Motors (TSLA) common and calls.
Surprise No. 7: Twitter's shares fall by 70% as a disruptive competitor appears.
Strategy: Short Twitter (TWTR) common and buy TWTR puts.
Surprise No. 8: Buffett names successor.
Surprise No. 9: Bitcoin becomes a roller coaster.
Bitcoin scores acceptance as a virtual currency from Amazon and eBay (EBAY) in early 2014 and climbs to over $7,500 in value by midyear.
The Winklevoss twins make nearly $350 million on paper from their investment in bitcoin. (Boca Biff, also mega long bitcoin, bids for the Boca Raton Hotel, which is across the street from his home in Boca Raton, Florida.)
Just at the time that bitcoin begins gaining legitimacy as a currency, improprieties in the calculation of the supply of bitcoins are found. A fraudulent double-spend attack wreaks havoc and significantly disrupts the bitcoin market. At the same time, a selfish miner (who does not release solutions to solved cryptopuzzles and minds a branch in secret) successfully attacks the bitcoin system and gains control of over 55% of the total network hashing power.
The value of bitcoin falls by nearly 70% in a two-week period and closes back under $1,000 by year-end.
Several momentum-based hedge funds that got long fail spectacularly.
Strategy: Buy and then short bitcoins
Surprise No. 10: The Republican Party gains control of the Senate and maintains control of the House.
As a result, President Obama becomes a lame duck president who is unable to launch any new policy initiatives.
The S&P 500 soars to over 2100.
Strategy: Buy everything.