SAN DIEGO (TheStreet) -- Whenever a bullish or bearish analyst veers from the pack, it's noteworthy. With Netflix (NFLX), it was noteworthy when Janney's longtime bear Tony Wible turned bullish just before the stock took off.
For that reason, it's equally noteworthy that longtime bull Scott Devitt (Morgan Stanley) turned bearish.
Too soon? That's what my colleague Jim Cramer said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" this morning. I think his exact word was, "premature."
And he may be right, but every call by every analyst, especially on a hot momentum stock, can't always be viewed as the moment of truth. It's not always about every tick of every trade. There's nothing wrong with trying to get ahead of the curve.
Momentum stocks simply can't be tied to fundamental concerns.
But sometimes, if a company has enough of a history, as Netflix does, it can be analyzed. That's just what Devitt did, in a well-reasoned report that focuses on subscriber saturation and the commoditization of "digital video distribution."
From his report:
"On the paid end of the spectrum, we think that Amazon Prime Instant Video, HBO GO, and Hulu Plus each offer compelling value to consumers and could gain momentum in 2014 as mass digital distribution is becoming commoditized and more content is becoming available for bidding. We continue to think that Netflix holds up well in comparison to these services, but since Netflix has amassed over 30MM domestic subscribers to date, we think it may be easier for its competitors to gain their next 5MM users than it will be for Netflix."