22 Biotech Stock Predictions for 2014

Twenty-two biotech predictions for 2014:

1. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX): The phase III studies of Kalydeco+VX-809 succeed, shares double.

2. Orexigen Therapeutics  (OREX): Contrave will outsell its obesity pill competitors Qsymia and Belviq. Likewise, Orexigen's stock will outperform Vivus (VVUS) and Arena Pharma  (ARNA).

3. Retrophin RTRX makes a hostile tender offer for Valeant Pharmaceuticals  (VRX).

4. Ongoing federal investigations of Questcor Pharmaceuticals  (QCOR) and its marketing practices for its flagship product Acthar Gel culminate in civil and criminal indictments against the company. CEO Don Bailey is forced to resign.

5. FDA rejects MannKind's  (MNKD) inhaled, rapid acting insulin Afrezza for the third time.

6. BioMarin Pharmaceuticals  (BMRN) will not be acquired. (Thereby guaranteeing BioMarin will be acquired.)

7. A Baker Brothers ETF is launched.

8. Tony Coles becomes CEO of Merck  (MRK).

9. Cellular therapy developer Neostem  (NBS) blows up on negative cardiac clinical trial data but CEO Robin Smith restructures company by opening a nationwide chain of stem-cell smoothie shops.

10. Amgen  (AMGN) will outperform the other big-cap biotech stocks, although all will finish the year higher than where they started.

11. Gilead Sciences  (GILD) will break out early on a strong launch of its hepatitis C pill Sovaldi but the stock finishes 2014 flattish -- a single-digit gain.

12. Weak, disappointing drug launches for Vanda Pharma  (VNDA) and Keryx Pharma  (KERX).

13. Avik Roy bashes Obamacare. (I have to make sure I get at least one of these damn predictions right.)

14. Twitter traders maintain their track record of never losing money on a biotech stock.

15. Peregrine Pharma (PPHM) manages to enroll 7 patients into its bavituximab phase III lung cancer trial, but that's five more than Cel-Sci  (CVM) manages to enroll in the Multikine head-and-neck cancer study.

16. Taken out in M&A deals: Regeneron Pharma  (REGN), Cempra  (CEMP), NPS Pharma  (NPSP), Clovis Oncology  (CLVS) and Halozyme  (HALO).

17. Raptor Pharma  (RPTP) proves not all orphan-drug launches are guaranteed successes as patients abandon Procysbi and insurance companies restrict reimbursement.

18. Dendreon  (DNDN)files for bankruptcy protection.

19. A coalition of private insurers and pharmacy benefits managers form a Super PAC to lobby Congress to consider implementation of European-style drug price controls.

20. Gene therapy developer Sangamo BioSciences  (SGMO) issues press release No. 689 claiming to cure HIV but still, no one believes them. Bluebird's  (BLUE) gene therapy program, however, proves to be the real deal.

21. Forbes' Matt Herper conducts another live interview with billionaire healthcare executive Patrick Soon-Shiong about his new healthcare tech venture NantWorks, but the audience still doesn't understand what the hell Soon-Shiong's company is supposed to be doing.

22. Cell Therapeutics' (CTIC) Jim Bianco wins Best Biotech CEO of 2014 (This is my black swan prediction.)

Here's a look back at how well my 2013 predictions fared:

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