Ulta Salon, Express Fall 25% Since Thanksgiving

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Weaker than expected earnings per share, revenue misses or lowered forward guidance from retailers is a warning for the U.S. economy as nine stocks from the retail-wholesale sector were sent to the woodshed between Thanksgiving eve and Christmas eve. This post covers the biggest losers and six of nine traded down by double-digit percentages led by salon products retailer Ulta Salon (ULTA) down 26.5% followed by the specialty retailer of women's and men's apparel Express (EXPR) down 25.9%.

In my earlier post today I covered the winners and only three outperformed the S&P 500 since Thanksgiving.

The five major equity averages set new all-time or multi-year intra-day highs on Christmas eve. Unfortunately, it's obvious that a rising tide no longer lifts all boats as eight buy rated stocks from the retail-wholesale sector sank as the stock market rose.

The new all-time or multi-year intra-day highs are 16,360.60 Dow Industrials vs. its weekly risky level at 16,365. The new high for S&P 500 is 1833.32 vs. its weekly pivot at 1831.8. The new high for the Nasdaq is 4155.62. The new high for Dow transports is 7344.88 vs. its weekly pivot at 7338. The new high for the Russell 2000 is 1163.67 vs. its quarterly risky level at 1163.21.

Fundamentally 85.6% of all stocks are overvalued with 59.1% overvalued by 20% or more. All 16 sectors are overvalued, 15 by double-digit percentages. We show 13 sectors overvalued by 22.9% to 43.3%.

Aeropostale (ARO) ($9.01 vs. $9.84 on Nov. 27 down 8.4%) the retailer of casual apparel for teenagers has a hold rating is 214.7% overvalued with a loss of 31.2% over the last 12 months and is below its 200-day simple moving average at $11.93. The teen retailer has a negative weekly chart profile and is below its five-week modified moving average at $9.11 and its 200-week SMA at $18.12, and set a multi-year intra-day low at $7.78 on Sept. 4. My weekly value level is $8.80 with a monthly risky level at $9.88.

Big Lots (BIG) ($31.57 vs. $38.34 on Nov. 27 down 17.7%) the retailer of closeout merchandise and toys has a buy rating is 12.5% overvalued with a gain of 10.6% over the last 12 months and is below its 200-day SMA at $35.51. Big Lots has a negative weekly chart profile and is below its five-week MMA at $33.82 and its 200-week SMA at $35.40 and traded as low as $30.22 on Dec. 10. My weekly pivot is $32.46 with a quarterly risky level at $36.41.

Barnes & Noble (BKS) ($14.57 vs. $16.69 on Nov. 27 down 12.7%) the retailer of books and the Nook has a buy rating is 0.7% undervalued with a loss of 3% over the last 12 months and is below its 200-day SMA at $16.62. The book seller has a negative weekly chart profile and is below its five-week MMA at $14.80 and its 200-week SMA at $15.30 and traded to a recent low at $13.40 on Dec. 11. My annual value level is $14.33 with a weekly risky level at $15.23 and monthly risky level at $16.60.

Express ($18.24 vs. $24.61 on Nov. 27 down 25.9%) has a strong buy rating is 5.3% undervalued with a gain of 22.6% over the last 12 months and is below its 200-day SMA at $20.98. Express has a negative weekly chart profile and is below its five-week MMA at $20.60, and set a recent low at $18.02 on Dec. 12. My quarterly value level is $17.24 with a quarterly pivot at $19.48 and weekly risky level at $19.92.

Family Dollar (FDO) ($65.55 vs. $70.14 on Nov. 27 down 6.5%) the discount retailer has a buy rating is 3.6% overvalued with a gain of 4.3% over the last 12 months and is below its 200-day SMA at $66.50. The discounter has a negative but oversold weekly chart profile and is below its five-week MMA at $67.01 and above its 200-week SMA at $56.41 and traded to a recent low at $62.84 on Dec. 18. My annual value level is $49.09 with a weekly pivot at $65.15 and semiannual and monthly risky levels at $73.03 and $75.44.

Five Below (FIVE) ($43.81 vs. $53.56 on Nov. 27 down 18.2%) the retailer of pre-teen merchandise has a buy rating with a gain of 33.7% over the last 12 months and its price dip stayed above its 200-day SMA at $41.68. Five Below has a negative weekly chart profile and is below its five-week MMA at $46.35 setting a recent low at $41.65 on Dec. 12. My quarterly value level is $39.53 with a monthly risky level at $47.64.

Lululemon (LULU) ($58.98 vs. $70.20 on Nov. 27 down 16%) the retailer of tight fitting yoga pants has a buy rating is 10.6% undervalued with a loss of 22.2% over the last 12 months and is below its 200-day SMA at $70.20. Lulu has a negative weekly chart profile and is between its 200-week SMA at $53.26 and its five-week MMA at $64.62 and set a new 52-week low at $57.35 on Dec. 16. My weekly pivot is $58.36 with a monthly risky level at $80.21.

Target (TGT) ($61.71 vs. $64.41 on Nov. 27 down 4.2%) the big box retailer with a recent breach of internet issues is 10.7% overvalued with a gain of 3.6% over the last 12 months and is below its 200-day SMA at $67.32 with the Dec, 24 low at $61.71. Target has a negative weekly chart profile and is below its five-week MMA at $63.30 with is 200-week SMA at $57.80. My annual value level is $53.54 with weekly, monthly and annual risky levels at $63.70, $64.91 and $65.45.

ULTA Salon ($94.42 vs. $128.44 on Nov. 27 down 26.5%) has a strong buy rating is 0.4% undervalued with a loss of 2.8% over the last 12 months and is below its 200-day SMA at $102.34. ULTA has a negative weekly chart profile with its five-week MMA at $106.68 and its 200-week SMA at $70.34 and set its second half 2013 low at $88.61 on Dec. 17. My weekly and semiannual pivots are $98.88 and $104.65.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

Follow @Suttmeier

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

More from Opinion

7 Takeaways From Google's $550-Million Investment in Alibaba Rival JD.com

7 Takeaways From Google's $550-Million Investment in Alibaba Rival JD.com

It's Just Not Smart For Investors to Ignore the Threat of a Trade War

It's Just Not Smart For Investors to Ignore the Threat of a Trade War

To Think a Trade War's Still Just a Threat Is the Dumbest Thing on Wall Street

To Think a Trade War's Still Just a Threat Is the Dumbest Thing on Wall Street

Flashback Friday in Politics: Trade Wars, Manafort, Immigration Dominate Minds

Flashback Friday in Politics: Trade Wars, Manafort, Immigration Dominate Minds

Microsoft and Sony's Rumored Game Console Plans Bode Well for AMD

Microsoft and Sony's Rumored Game Console Plans Bode Well for AMD