Today's focus, however, is not on Samsung's potential flop of a smartwatch, but rather, Apple's (AAPL) possible duplicate of such a product as I'm not buying into the concept that investors and analysts need to see an iWatch from Apple just to prove it can innovate.
We already know Apple can innovate. Though Apple didn't invent Smartphones, tablets and mp3 players, it was the first company to get them right and really make them into desirable products. Apple not only nailed the products, but it also nailed consumers' perception of them -- maybe I'm the only one feeling this way?
Apple shouldn't rush something to the market that's largely irrelevant. While compiling estimates on a product that has yet to exist seems rather meaningless and slightly idiotic, that hasn't stopped analysts from doing so.
Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster suggested that if 2-to-4% of current iPhone users buy an iWatch, it will sell between 5 and 10 million units. Taking the best case scenario of 10 million units, that's good for about $3.5 billion in revenues -- based on a $350 price tag for the iWatch.
If Munster's estimates for this nonexistent product are semi-accurate, the iWatch would hardly constitute as a needle-mover for a company the size of Apple. With fiscal 2013 revenues of $170 billion, the iWatch would have accounted for a minuscule 2%.
Of course, this isn't accurate either, since it's based off of an estimate of something having a good chance of existing. See my point? We have no clue.
But at that rate, even 25 million units at the hefty cost of $350 would still have only accounted for 5% of revenue at the time.
In actuality, an investor who is sitting on the sidelines -- ignoring Apple's valuation, current product line up, dividend and share repurchase -- and buys the stock because the company released an iWatch, has invested backwards.
Apple can innovate, and releasing a product for the sole purpose of releasing a product is stupid.
The Samsung Gear has reportedly shipped 800,000 units since its release in September. Analysts would be pounding Apple into dust if they saw a figure like that come from the Cupertino juggernaut.