Think of it like this. For the past 35% of the S&P 500's increase, we have been told that a tapering of bond buying would cause an excruciating selloff. Isn't that why we talk about it so much? We clearly don't prattle about it endlessly because of what it will do to bonds, although that's what it's supposed to be about.
We care about what it will do to stocks.
Now: If this is what we have been so worried about, how could it not repeal a substantial chunk of what was not supposed to occur if the Fed had been tapering? How could it not wipe out a good deal of the advance that would never have happened if we had simply listened to the cause-and-effect folks chatter on inanely about a stock market that they know little about?
I will go one step further. If the market doesn't take at least a 4%-to-5% hit on the beginning of a tapering, then we'll have spent a serious amount of time discussing something that has not been materially important to the advance. At the very least, it has not been as important as the metrics I always harp on, like sales, earnings, dividends, restructurings, management, execution and secular themes.
In other words, it is put-up-or-shut-up week for those who have held so many hostage with their sword of tapering. If the Fed does announce they'll cut back on bond-buying, and if the market doesn't then get hit at least 5%, will they fall on that sword?
Or will I have to run them through with it?
Oh, and we should get this straight. Let's say it is business as usual at the Fed because the U.S. is not yet at 6% unemployed. Let's say the housing market is shaky as you would think, if you had listened to Toll Brothers (TOL) last week, and that retail is still in the doldrums, if you've taken your cue from Wal-Mart (WMT) and Target (TGT). If all of this is the case, then all that good news I just mentioned? Let the buying floodgates open for all who will want in now that the big bad event is behind us.
At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, was long M.
Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 7:16 a.m. EST on Real Money on Dec. 16.