Leading into Apple, in another 2013 prediction article, I said:
Dog me on the INTC call all you want, but the company remains in serious trouble, despite it's best efforts to remain relevant. But, that aside, if you lost money on a pair trade that shorted INTC and went long FB in 2013, you should stick to passive 401k investing.
The chart -- and the way you would have managed the respective positions -- says it all.
Anyhow, the odd Intel-Facebook tango segues nicely.
Intel is hitched to names such as BBY, HPQ and MSFT. And that's a horrible thing.
Given the likelihood that Microsoft will tap a retread to replace Steve Ballmer (TheStreet's tech editor, Chris Ciaccia, also nailed the Ballmer prediction), there's no return to glory happening there. And I'm still convinced we'll see the true colors at Best Buy (BBY) and HP (HPQ) shine through in 2014.
A general apathy and lack of anything even resembling zest, vision or critical self-reflection on BBY's board might spare Joly his job. Meantime, Meg will spin her way to job security, brilliantly buying herself time by implementing the never-ending "five-year plan" to "turnaround" Hewlett-Packard.
Speaking of CEOs keeping or losing gigs ...
2014 will make or break Tim Cook at Apple.
If Cook listens to people who say spend Apple's cash to do a bigger buyback or use it to buy Twitter (TWTR), we're screwed. That'll be a sure sign Cook doesn't know the way forward.
But I don't think that will happen.
In time for the holidays, 2014-style, I expect Apple to unveil Apple TV, an HDTV blended with a set-top box.
- There will be no expensive content deals involved with this thing. Intel, which failed on its living room efforts, proved that, no matter who you are, you have zero leverage with the big programmers.
- Apple's new TV will be all about user experience. It will not only refine and reinvent how we find and consume content, it will completely reshape what's possible in the living room (and other rooms, for that matter).
- Apple will not do a smartwatch. That's a fad, like Google (GOOG) Glass, that will never catch on. The hires Apple made that the media associated with a forthcoming smartwatch probably have more to do with Apple TV than anything else. This TV will touch multiple parts of your life, not just television viewing.
If Apple TV achieves anything close to the level of success iPod, iPhone and iPad achieved in their first year on the market (controlling for the anticipated price differences), Tim Cook plays out his tenure as Apple CEO in relative comfort. If not, the media will jump all over him. And he'll likely get fired in early 2015.
But I don't think that'll happen. I love Apple's pace right now. And I marvel at how much better iPad Air is than its predecessor.
Plus, the people are salivating for a brand new Apple product. And the people rule. Tim Cook is creating all sorts of pent up demand right now. When he pulls the cork, it's going to gush, likely overshadowing anything Microsoft, HP or anybody else in the "other" category thinks they have going for them.
--Written by Rocco Pendola in New York City