Dollar General, Diamond Foods and Mattress Firm Are Earnings Winners

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Last week I profiled 16 retail-oriented companies pre-earnings on Dec. 2 and Wednesday. Today I provide a scorecard for the eight that did not go to the earnings woodshed. Discount retailer Dollar General (DG) beat earnings estimates and traded to a new all-time intra-day high at $61.20 on Monday. Investors went nuts as Diamond Foods (DMND) beat estimates and set a 52-week intra-day high at $26.23 on Friday. The other winner was Mattress Firm (MFRM) which beat estimates and popped above its 200-day simple moving average at $36.24 trading as high as $41.83 on Friday.

Among the 16 stocks I profiled last Monday and Wednesday, only four traded higher by Monday's close, but the gain for Jos. A Bank (JOSB) was just 0.2%. The other four in today's scorecard lost between 0.4% and 4.0%. On Monday I wrote, Ulta Salon, Krispy Kreme, Express Lead Retailers to Earnings Woodshed and this group of eight fell in price by 7.1% to 25% into Friday's closes.

Among the eight stocks in today's post, four have buy ratings, three have hold ratings and one has a strong sell rating. Among the six with valuations three are overvalued by 29.2% to 43.4%. All eight have price gains of 30.9% to 95.8% over the last 12 months. All eight are above their 200-day SMAs indicating the risk of a reversion to the mean.

Dollar General ($61.08 vs. $56.48 on Dec. 3) beat EPS estimates by 2 cents earning 72 cents a share premarket on Dec. 5. The buy rated stock popped above its 50-day SMA at $58.17 setting a new multi-year intra-day high at $61.20 on Monday and up 8.1% since Dec.3. The discount retailer is 17.2% overvalued and has gained 31.2% over the last 12 months and has been above its 200-day SMA now at $54.02 since March 20. My monthly and semiannual value levels are $58.77 and $56.97 with my quarterly risky level at $62.53.

Diamond Foods ($26.01 vs. $23.41 on Dec. 3) beat EPS estimates by a penny earning 18 cents a share in the afterhours on Thursday. The hold rated stock set a new 52-week intra-day high at $26.23 on Friday ending Monday up 11.1% since Dec. 3. The distributor of nuts such as peanuts, cashews, walnuts and almonds is 43.4% overvalued and has gained 95.4% over the last 12 months and has been above its 200-day SMA now at $19.80 since June 10. My monthly pivot is $25.33 with weekly risky level at $26.98.

Isle Of Capri Casinos (ISLE) ($8.05 vs. $8.13 on Nov. 29) missed EPS estimates by 11 cents reporting a loss of 17 cents a share in the premarket on Dec. 5. The hold rated stock was downgraded to strong sell but stayed above its 200-day SMA at $7.49 down just 1.0% since Nov. 29. The owner of branded gaming and lodging establishments is 11.4% overvalued and has gained 58.8% over the last 12 months. My annual value level is $5.54 with monthly and quarterly risky levels at $8.08 and $8.35.

Jos. A Bank ($56.71 vs. $56.58 on Dec. 3) beat EPS estimates by a penny earning 51 cents a share premarket on Thursday. The hold rated stock has been upgraded to buy but moved sideways with a gain of 0.2% since Dec. 3. The men's clothing company has a gain of 32.6% over the last 12 months and is solidly above its 200-day SMA at $43.98. My monthly value level is $52.56 with an annual pivot at $55.24 and semiannual risky level at $61.87.

Kroger (KR) ($40.42 vs. $42.10 on Dec. 3) matched EPS estimates earning 53 cents a share premarket on Thursday. The buy rated stock stayed below its 50-day SMA at $41.77 ending Monday down 4.0% since Dec. 3. The grocery chain is 16.5% overvalued and gained 51.7% over the last 12 months and is solidly above its 200-day SMA at $37.01. My quarterly value level is $37.94 with weekly and monthly risky levels at $42.31 and $43.56.

Mattress Firm ($40.75 vs. $37.13 on Nov. 29) beat EPS estimates by a penny earning 55 cents a share in the afterhours on Dec. 4. The buy rated stock was downgraded to hold on the positive reaction to this earnings report. The stock gapped above its 200-day SMA at $36.32 to a high of $41.83 on Nov. 6 ending Monday up 9.7% since Nov. 29. The mattress maker has gained 78.7% over the last 12 months. My monthly and weekly value levels are $39.38 and $38.35 with a monthly risky level at $45.50.

Shoe Carnival (SCVL) ($28.19 vs. $28.93 on Nov. 29) beat EPS estimates by 3 cents earning 54 cents a share in the afterhours on Dec. 2. The buy rated stock set a new all-time intra-day high at $29.40 on Dec. 3 then faded ending Monday down 2.6% since Nov. 29. The value-oriented retailer of family footwear is 29.2% overvalued and has gained 30.9% over the last 12 months. My weekly value level is $27.72 with a semiannual pivot at $28.38 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $29.30 and $30.37.

Toro (TTC) ($59.95 vs. $60.19 on Dec. 3) beat EPS estimates by 6 cents earning 8 cents premarket on Thursday. The hold rated stock had set a new all-time intra-day high at $62.47 on Nov. 29 and traded down to $57.60 on Thursday then held its 50-day SMA at $58.16 ending Monday down just 0.4%. The provider of turf maintenance equipment, snow removal products and irrigation systems is 39.0% overvalued and has gained 42.6% over the last 12 months and is well above its 200-day SMA at $50.64. My semiannual value level is $53.38 with a monthly pivot at $59.95 and quarterly and weekly risky levels at $61.20 and $62.64.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

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This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist atValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

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