Manny, Moe & Jack, Toll Brothers Continue Earnings Season

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Today's buy-and-trade earnings previews focus on seven retail-oriented companies that report quarterly results afterhours today through premarket Wednesday. Manny, Moe & Jack, the automotive retail and service chain, Pet Boys  (PBY) reports after the close today, rival Autozone  (AZO) reports premarket on Tuesday, and Costco  (COST) the members only retail warehouse reports premarket on Wednesday.

Of the seven stocks profiled in this post, three are from the retail-wholesale sector, two from the consumer discretionary sector, and one each from the construction and industrial products sectors.

We begin the week with 84.3% of all stocks overvalued according to www.ValuEngine.com with 54.5% overvalued by 20% or more. This is an intense ValuEngine valuation warning.

The construction sector is 16.5% overvalued with an underweight rating. Of the 156 stocks 56.4% in this sector have sell or strong sell ratings. The consumer discretionary sector is 28.3% overvalued with an equal-weight rating. Of the 393 stocks 83.2% in this sector have hold ratings.

The industrial products sector is 25.7% overvalued with an underweight rating. Of the 343 stocks 43.7% in this sector have sell or strong sell ratings. The retail-wholesale sector is 24.7% overvalued with an overweight rating. Of the 343 stocks 82.2% in this sector have buy or strong buy ratings.

Three of these seven stocks have buy ratings, three have hold ratings and one has a sell rating. All seven are overvalued with three overvalued by 21.4% to 40.5%. One has a fractional loss of the last 12 months while six have gains with four having gains of 24% to 58.9% over the last 12 months. One is below its 200-day simple moving average while six are above their 200-day SMAs which reflect the risk of reversion to the mean.

AutoZone ($459.60) has a buy rating, is 8.4% overvalued and has gained 26.2% over the last 12 months. Analysts expect the company to report EPS of $6.26 a share premarket on Tuesday. AutoZone set an all-time intra-day high at $470.47 on Nov. 25 well above its 200-day SMA at $419.88. My quarterly value level is $448.46 with a monthly pivot at $467.84 and semiannual risky level at $473.93.

Costco ($122.06) has a buy rating, is 21.4% overvalued and has gained 24% over the last 12 months. Analysts expect the company to report EPS of $1.03 a share premarket on Wednesday. Costco set an all-time intra-day high at $126.12 on Nov. 25 well above its 200-day SMA at $113.03. My semiannual value level is $103.24 with a quarterly pivot at $121.21 and semiannual risky level at $124.36, which was exceeded at the high.

H & R Block (HRB) ($29.01) has a hold rating, is 40.5% overvalued and has gained 58.9% over the last 12 months. Analysts expect the preparer of tax returns to report an EPS loss of 37 cents in the afterhours on Tuesday. Block set an all-time intra-day high at $32.09 on Aug. 1 and has been trading back and forth around its 200-day SMA at $28.48 since Sept. 23. My monthly value level is $27.24 with a weekly pivot at $29.51 and quarterly risky level at $30.06.

Joy Global (JOY) ($55.98) has a hold rating, is just 0.4% overvalued and has slipped by 0.9% over the last 12 months. Analysts expect the provider of surface and underground mining equipment to report EPS of $1.11 a share premarket on Wednesday. Joy Global set a 52-week intra-day low at $47.83 on July 24 and has been above its 200-day SMA at $54.42 since Oct. 24 setting a second half 2013 high at $59.35 on Nov. 7. My monthly value level is $46.85 with a weekly risky level at $61.37.

Pep Boys ($13.44) has a buy rating, is 31.7% overvalued and has gained 36.7% over the last 12 months. Analysts expect the company to report EPS of 13 cents a share in the afterhours on Monday. Manny, Moe & Jack set a 52-week intra-day high at $14.07 on Nov. 19 and is above its 200-day SMA at $12.14. My semiannual value level is $11.10 with a quarterly pivot at $13.27 and weekly risky level at $14.14.

Smith & Wesson (SWHC) ($12.21) has a hold rating, is 15.5% overvalued and has gained 12.5% over the last 12 months. Analysts expect the handgun and law enforcement products maker to report EPS of 21 cents in the afterhours on Tuesday. Smith & Wesson set a multi-year intra-day high at $13.38 on Aug. 6 and is trading well above its 200-day SMA at $10.33. My weekly value level is $11.71 with a monthly pivot at $12.35 and quarterly risky level at $15.44.

Toll Brothers (TOL) ($32.89) has a sell rating, is 17.6% overvalued and has gained just 7.2% over the last 12 months. Analysts expect the luxury homebuilder to report EPS of 42 cents a share premarket on Tuesday. Toll Brothers set a multi-year intra-day high at $39.25 on May 22 then set a 52-week intra-day low at $29.64 on Oct. 9, and has been trading back and forth around its 200-day SMA at $33.16 since Oct. 23. My semiannual value level is $31.95 with a semiannual pivot at $32.51 and weekly risky level at $34.66.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

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