Apple and Amazon Lead Momentum

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Momentum stocks typically trade higher even though they may be overvalued fundamentally and overbought technically. Apple (AAPL) has been the leader since Nov. 13 gaining 8.5% with Amazon.com  (AMZN) just behind with a gain of 8.3%.

Among the eight I have been following, two others gained 5.1% and 6.3% since Nov. 13, while the former leader Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) became the laggard losing 3.6% since my Nov. 14 post, Chipotle and Priceline Lead Momentum Stocks While Tesla Lags.

Following monthly benchmark revisions to ValuEngine data the stock market remains intensely overvalued with 84.1% of all stocks overvalued and with 52.4% overvalued by 20% or more. Four of the eight momentum stocks updated today are overvalued by 29.6% to 74.2%.

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Among the eight stocks in today's table five have extremely overbought weekly charts with one having flat momentum and two have declining momentum. Three of the eight stocks have buy ratings according to www.ValuEngine.com with five having hold ratings. One stock is down 1.9% over the last 12 months, while seven have gains of 53.1% to 311.2%. Only one has a reasonable price-to-earnings ratio and three have P/E between 198.3 and 629.3. All eight are well above their 200-day simple moving averages reflecting the risk of reversion to the mean.

Reading the Table

OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.

Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.

Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.

Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.

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Apple ($565.00 vs. $520.63 on Nov. 13) has been above its 200-day simple moving average since Sept. 18 and set a new 2013 high at $569.19 on Wednesday. Apple is projected to open above my weekly pivot at $567.01 this morning. Apple appears to be benefiting from a boom in holiday sales and now has an iPhone deal with China Mobile. Apple's weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with its five-week modified moving average at $528.20. Monthly and annual value levels are $521.87 and $510.64 with my semiannual risky level at $620.84.

Amazon.com ($385.96 vs. $356.22 on Nov. 13) has been above its 200-day SMA since May 3 and set a new all-time high at $399.00 on Dec. 2 on the report that same day packages will be sent to customers via drones. Amazon has a positive but overbought weekly chart profile with its five-week MMA at $362.01. My monthly value level is $366.13 with a weekly risky level at $401.24, which was nearly tested at Monday's all-time high. Momentum traders will continue to ignore the stock's 12 month trailing P/E ratio at 629.3.

Chipotle ($518.11 vs. $537.56 on Nov. 13) has been above its 200-day SMA since March 3 and set a new all-time high at $550.28 on Nov.18. The modest decline since the high can be attributed to generally weaker same store sales among many eateries. As a sign of continued momentum the daily chart is oversold, while the weekly chart remains positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at $510.23. My semiannual value level is $473.26 with a monthly pivot at $543.57 and weekly risky level at $604.95.

Google (GOOG) ($1058.18 vs. $1032.47 on Nov. 13) has been above its 200-day SMA all year long and came close to a test of this support with a low of $842.98 on Oct. 9. Google set a new all-time high at $1068.00 on Nov 27. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at $1012.61. My quarterly value level is $986.18 with weekly and monthly pivots at $1155.72 and $1058.36.

Linkedin (LNKD) ($219.02 vs. $220.77 on Nov. 13) has been above its 200-day SMA all year long, but the stock has been moving sideways to down since setting its all-time high at $257.55 on Sept. 11. The weekly chart profile has been negative since the end of October with its five-week MMA at $226.25. My weekly value level is $211.00 with a quarterly pivot at $222.58 and monthly risky level at $246.06.

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Netflix (NFLX) ($356.27 vs. $335.28 on Nov 13) has been above its 200-day SMA all year long and spiked to an all-time high at $389.16 on Oct. 22 then traded as low as $309.20 on Oct. 29. The weekly chart has flat momentum with the stock above its five-week MMA at $340.03. My weekly value level is $351.80 with a monthly risky level at $376.30.

Priceline.com (PCLN) ($1181.67 vs. $1124.20 on Nov. 13) has been above its 200-day SMA since Jan. 7 and set a new all-time high at $1198.75 on Friday. The weekly chart remains positive but oversold with its five-week MMA at $1114.65. My weekly value level is $1146.41 with a monthly risky level at $1220.78.

Tesla Motors (TSLA) ($138.95 vs. $138.70 on Nov. 13) has been above its 200-day SMA all year and set its all-time high at $194.50 on Sept. 30 then traded as low as $116.10 on Nov. 26 staying above its 200-day SMA at $112.19. Tesla has a negative weekly chart with its five-week MMA at $144.51 which was tested on Tuesday. My quarterly value level at $129.44 was breached at the low and this month's risky level is $222.17.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at AlphaPlus Analytics in addition to ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

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