Tiffany Earnings Sparkle as Cracker Barrel Cracks

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Last week I profiled nine companies pre-earnings in Tiffany, Hewlett-Packard Headline Tuesday's Earnings Reports. Buy rated Tiffany ( TIF) offered sparkling earnings and was the biggest post-earnings winner ending last week up 9.9% from its Nov. 22 close to its Black Friday close. Country store and eatery Cracker Barrel ( CBRL) beat EPS estimates, but cracked lower by 7.2% on decelerating same store sales.

Among the nine stocks were seven consumer-oriented stocks five of which have buy ratings according to www.ValuEngine.com. These five gained between 4.4% and 9.9% from their Nov. 22 closes to their Friday close. The buy rated names are in the retail-wholesale sector which is 31.6% overvalued but boasts an overweight rating as 78.7% of the 343 stocks in the sector are buy rated.

We enter the last month of 2013 with an intense ValuEngine valuation warning as 86.3% of all stocks overvalued including 59.3% overvalued by 20% or more. All 16 sectors are overvalued 15 by double-digit percentages. There are 13 sectors overvalued by more than 24% or which nine are overvalued by 30.7% to 36.9%.

In this environment all five of the major averages set new all-time or multi-year intra-day highs on Friday; 16,174.51 Dow Industrials, 1813.55 S&P 500, 4069.70 Nasdaq, 7273.81 Dow transports and 1147.00 Russell 2000. All five have positive but extremely overbought weekly chart profiles with 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings well above the 80.00 threshold with readings between 90.61 and 95.43.

Reading the Table

OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.

Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.

Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.

Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.

Analog Devices ( ADSK) ($48.22) beat EPS estimates by 4 cents earning 62 cents a share in the afterhours on Tuesday. The hold rated designer of integrated circuits slumped below its 200-day simple moving average at $46.72 to a Wednesday low at $46.12 then rebounded back above the 200-day to a high of $48.81 on Friday above its 50-day SMA average at $48.22, where the stock closed on Friday. Buy-and-trade investors could have bought the stock at its 200-day at $46.72 and sold it at my monthly pivot at $48.73. My new monthly value level is $47.61 with a weekly pivot at $50.29 and a semiannual risky level at $51.19.

Barnes & Noble ( BKS) ($16.78) beat EPS estimates by 20 cents earning 15 cents premarket on Tuesday. The buy rated book and nook retailer traded down to $15.26 then rebounded to a high of $17.31 on Friday closing just above its 200-day SMA at $16.65, as my monthly and quarterly pivots became magnets at $16.65 and $17.14. My annual value level is $14.33 with a new monthly pivot at $16.60, a quarterly pivot at $17.14 and annual risky level at $17.58.

Brown Shoe ( BWS) ($25.73) matched EPS estimates earning 62 cents a share premarket on Tuesday. The hold rated maker of footwear for all members of the family set a new multi-year high at $27.20 on Tuesday then slumped to $25.70 on Friday. My semiannual value level is $22.29 with a quarterly pivot at $26.19 and new monthly risky level at $29.07.

Cracker Barrel ($108.49) beat EPS estimates by 9 cents earning $1.22 premarket on Tuesday. The buy rated country store and eatery set a new multi-year high at $118.63 on Nov. 25 giving buy-and-trade investors the opportunity to book profits at my monthly risky level at $117.38 pre-earnings. After reporting results the stock gapped lower on Tuesday trading to a week's low at $108.05 on Friday vs. my quarterly value level at $111.58. My semiannual value level is $95.53 with its 50-day SMA at $107.83, my quarterly pivot at $111.58 and a weekly risky level at $115.08.

Chicos FAS ( CHS) ($18.69) missed EPS estimates by 2 cents earning 22 cents a share premarket on Tuesday. The buy rated retailer of private label casual clothing traded up to $18.78 into Friday. My annual value level is $16.25 with a semiannual pivot at $19.10 and quarterly risky level at $20.75.

Hewlett-Packard ( HPQ) ($27.35) beat EPS estimates by a penny earning $1.01 in the afterhours on Tuesday. The hold rated provider of personal computers and printers traded up to $27.68 giving buy-and-trade investors the opportunity to book profits on strength to my weekly risky level at $27.53. My new monthly value level is $24.58 with a weekly risky level at $29.25.

Hormel Foods ( HRL) ($45.02) beat EPS estimates by 4 cents earning 58 cents a share premarket on Tuesday. The hold rated provider of bacon, sausages, franks and canned meets traded up to $45.53. My new monthly value level is $42.92 with a weekly pivot at $45.34 and annual risky level at $46.00.

Children's Place ( PLCE) ($55.00) beat EPS estimates by 6 cents earning $1.89 a share premarket on Tuesday. The buy rated specialty retailer of apparel and accessories for children up the 12 years old traded down to $51.05 then rebounded to $55.39 on Friday as the stock moved from below its 200-day SMA at $52.13 to above its 50-day SMA at $54.45. My weekly value level is $51.45 with my annual risky level at $57.18.

Tiffany ($89.14) beat EPS estimates by 15 cents earning 73 cents a share premarket on Tuesday. The buy rated retailer of luxury jewelry gapped higher at the open and traded to a new multi-year high at $89.72 on Friday. My semiannual value level is $86.69 with a monthly pivot at $89.35 and semiannual risky level at $95.51.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at AlphaPlus Analytics in addition to ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com