One fact changing for shareholders is risk of ownership declines and the potential reward increases as the price falls, all else being equal. The company and the market agreed with Let the Bidding Begin for BlackBerry.

Fairfax Financial wasn't interested in actually buying the company and only wanted to generate interest and urgency from potential suitors. The board ousted Thorsten Heins as CEO because he really should have finalized the sale before BB10, not wait until after. Now it's up to you to decide if I'm right that BlackBerry is worth over $8 or not.

With shares near $6, the difference doesn't represent much on a per dollar share basis, but as a percentage, a 25% or more appreciation is significant. Make no mistake, BlackBerry the company (verses the stock) has declined in value over the six months, but I believe the shares have fallen proportionally more, creating a reasonable risk vs. reward. For this reason, I've recently started buying shares in my own account for the first time.

As I type in my Las Vegas hotel room (I'm attending the SMX Social Media Marketing Conference to gain an insider's perspective), I can't help but be reminded that an axiom applicable to Vegas equally applies to Wall Street:  "No, things don't have to get better, and yes, it can get worse."

In other words, BlackBerry is far from a sure thing, and I don't predict the future, only the odds. As always, perform your own due diligence and never leave yourself without a life jacket.

At the time of publication, the author was long J.C. Penney and BlackBerry.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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