Macy's Parades to a New High, While Cisco Is Cautious

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Earnings volatility continued last week as six of the stocks previewed here last Monday in Cisco, Wal-Mart and Macy's Lead This Week's Earnings Parade moved higher by 1.6% to 10.6% as Macy's ( M) led the parade of winners. To the downside four lost between 1.3% and 8.4% as Cisco Systems ( CSCO) networked to the earnings woodshed as the biggest loser.

Fundamentally the percentage of overvalued stocks reached a 2013 high at 85.4% with 55.4% overvalued by 20% or more.

Technically all five major averages have positive but overbought weekly chart profiles. On Friday the Dow Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Dow transports set new all-time intra-day highs at 15,962.98, 1798.22 and 7211.61 respectively. The Nasdaq set a new multi-year high at 3985.97. The Russell 2000 stayed below its all-time intra-day high at 1123.26 set on Oct. 30.

Reading the Table

OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.

Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.

Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.

Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.

Applied Materials ( AMAT) ($17.52) beat EPS estimates by a penny earning 19 cents a share Thursday. The stock traded below its 50-day simple moving average Friday to a day's low at $17.11 then closed above the 50-day at $17.34. My quarterly value level is $16.46 with a monthly pivot at $18.00 vs. the stock's multi-year high at $18.18 set on Oct. 14. My weekly risky level is $19.50.

Cisco Systems beat EPS estimates by a penny earning 48 cents a share on Wednesday. The company missed on revenue and gave cautious guidance and the stock, which closed at $24.00 on Wednesday crumbled to a low of $20.77 on Thursday and on the trip to the woodshed, fell below its 200-day SMA at $23.06. Following this weakness Cisco was upgraded to buy from hold according to www.ValuEngine.com. My weekly value level is $20.97 with an annual pivot at $22.76 and semiannual risky level at $23.47.

Dean Foods ( DF) ($18.26) missed EPS estimates by a penny earning 12 cents a share on Tuesday. The stock ended Nov. 11 just below its 200-day SMA at $19.72 and traded down to $17.71. My monthly value level is $15.88 with a weekly pivot at $18.38 and quarterly risky level at $22.23.

D R Horton ( DHI) ($19.59) missed EPS estimates by a penny earning 40 cents a share premarket on Tuesday. Despite the miss the homebuilder opened above its Nov. 11 close at $18.06 to a Friday high at $19.97 above its 50-day SMA at $19.18. On this rebound the stock has been downgraded to sell from hold. My weekly value is $17.90 with a monthly pivot at $20.21 and semiannual risky level at $20.83.

Kinross Gold ( KGC) ($5.10) beat EPS estimates by a penny earning 4 cents a share in the afterhours on Wednesday. The gold miner opened Thursday above its 50-day SMA at $5.04 trading as high as $5.18 on Friday. My weekly value level is $4.69 with the 200-day SMA at $5.90 and my semiannual risky level at $6.23.

Kohl's ( KSS) ($53.95) missed EPS estimates by 5 cents earning 81 cents a share premarket on Thursday. This retailer set a multi-year high at $59.00 on Wednesday and was set to the earnings woodshed on Thursday to a low of $53.03 before ending the week above its 50-day SMA at $53.75. My annual value level is $49.19 with an annual pivot at $54.80 and semiannual risky levels at $56.05 and $60.88.

Macy's ($51.09) beat EPS estimates by 9 cents earning 47 cents a share premarket on Wednesday. Macy's big beat resulted in a huge gap higher as the stock paraded in a moon-shot from $46.33 at the Tuesday close to a new all-time high at $51.14 on Thursday. My weekly value level is $47.34 with a monthly pivot at $50.24 and semiannual risky level at $52.85.

NetApp ( NTAP) ($41.42) beat EPS estimates by 4 cents earning 52 cents a share in the afterhours on Wednesday. On Thursday the stock traded above its 50-day SMA at $41.43 to a day's high at $42.69 then dipped to $40.65 on Friday. My weekly value level is $38.81 with a quarterly pivot at $40.84 and monthly risky level at $43.33. My quarterly pivot acted as a magnet last week.

Netease ( NTES) ($68.02) missed EPS estimates by 4 cents earning $1.31 a share in the afterhours on Wednesday. The stock which closed at $69.41 on Wednesday opened on Thursday with a low of $63.00 then rebounded to $68.03 on Friday as my semiannual level at $65.71 becomes the value level with a monthly risky level at $77.68.

Wal-Mart ( WMT) ($79.22) beat EPS estimates by a penny earning $1.14 a share in the premarket on Thursday. The retail giant opened lower trading down to $77.68 on cautious comments on holiday shopping but the stock changed direction and traded to a day's high at $79.53. My weekly and semiannual value levels are $76.89 and $74.96 with a monthly risky level at $80.39.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at AlphaPlus Analytics in addition to ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

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