Operationally, I'm sure the company is going to have a bang-up year next year.
But in terms of the stock, I think Twitter's much likelier to see a stock price with a 3 in front of it rather than a 5.
Thursday's initial public offering was tremendous. After initially discussing pricing in the teens a few weeks ago, with every tech blog on the planet complaining about low user numbers and decelerating revenue growth, the stock prices at $26 and opens at $45.
Good for the company. I'm happy for them, the New York Stock Exchange, and Goldman Sachs (GS) including Anthony Noto. They completed a near-perfect IPO. They showed Facebook (FB) how it should be done by following the LinkedIn (LNKD) playbook almost to a "T."
But there's no way that Twitter deserves a $35 billion valuation right now.
Even at $25 billion -- which would be around $36/share -- that's a stretch.
Yesterday, the exuberance took the stock right up to kiss $50. Then it immediately dropped back, closing below its open price. Today, it's slumping again.
As with Facebook, I think the underwriters are going to do their best for the next week or two to keep this thing levitating. But you can only hold your finger in the dike so long.