Cyclical Stocks Gaining Favor Amid Frothy Market

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Cyclical stock are winning favor as the economy shows signs of growth and fund managers seek richer opportunities.

Consumer staples and insurance have helped fuel the Standard & Poor 500's meteoric climb this year, notching between 30 to 37% in 2013 while cyclical sectors real estate and technology hardware have posted more subdued returns of between 4 to 11%. The S&P has advanced 24%, poised for its best performance since 1997.

But fund managers warn that rising valuations among defensive sectors coupled with an ongoing economic recovery translates into a better outlook for cyclical names. Money managers cite the likelihood of a fresh capital expenditure cycle - investment by corporates for growth rather than hoarding cash - as a potential trigger for better returns in cyclicals. 


Jeffery Saut, Raymond James chief investment strategist, said his recent tour of the struggling Detroit area showed evidence of the pick-up with auto-plants working in overdrive.

"We are going to get a capital expenditure cycle in 2014 that will lift GDP towards 3%," Saut said in a phone interview. "And never underestimate the ability of the American consumer to spend money, even if they don't have it." Saut likes the consumer discretionary and energy sectors, citing stocks such as Apple (AAPL), Tempur Sealy (TPX), Weyerhaeuser (WY) and The Fresh Market (TFM) as presenting solid potential. Florida-based Saut helps oversee $400 billion in funds. 

Others cite the rebound in manufacturing data as reason to back cyclicals. 

"In general, cyclical companies are cheaper than defensives and stand to benefit more from any improvements to the global economy," Russ Koesterich, BlackRock's global chief investment strategist said in a note this week.

Koesterich said a rotation toward cyclicals had already begun - with these stocks gaining around 4.5% or roughly double as much as defensive sectors over the past three months. Koesterich, who helps oversee $4 trillion in funds, likes the IT and energy sectors along with U.S. manufacturers (such as chemical companies) that benefit from lower energy costs.

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