He estimates a pool of 1,400 T315i patients in the U.S. At $115,000 per year, Ariad's commercial market opportunity is $160 million.

Ariad will never reach $160 million in Iclusig sales, however, my investor source warns, because most of these patients won't be capable of tolerating Iclusig for very long. Ariad might compensate by jacking up the price of Iclusig, but again, my source is skeptical because of the criticism and blowback the company will get if it tries to charge more for a troubled drug.

Thank you.

Thank you, too!

-- Reported by Adam Feuerstein in Boston.

Adam Feuerstein writes regularly for TheStreet. In keeping with company editorial policy, he doesn't own or short individual stocks, although he owns stock in TheStreet. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. Feuerstein appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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