NEW YORK (FMD Capital Management) -- One of the most truly frustrating things in investing is to see a fundamentally sound investment seem to wither before your eyes.No matter how much you research a particular security or theme, it sometimes just moves in the opposite direction despite all logical evidence to the contrary. One of the best ways to explain this phenomenon is that "investing is not logical, it is psychological." Never has this been more prevalent this year than with the price action of gold. Given the fundamental backdrop of unending quantitative easing, rising overseas demand, depreciation in the U.S. dollar and a finite supply of the precious metal, it would seem that gold prices should be on the rise. However, the spot price has continued to run afoul of nearly every significant momentum upswing this year. This can be even more frustrating when the investment is a non-correlated asset class that does not respond to the same technical or fundamental price action as stocks or bonds. Gold is known by some to be safe haven that can be a shelter from the auspices of a falling U.S. dollar or rising inflationary effects. To others, it is simply an investment to be bought or sold depending on the prevailing trend, production costs, or future outlook. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF ( GLD) has been in a persistent downtrend since it peaked in 2012 and every rally has been met with relentless selling pressure. Hedge funds have shunned it, institutional investors continue to forecast its demise and retail investors have never been more confused about the future direction of the yellow metal.
One of the biggest catalysts for a strengthening in the price of gold may well be a selloff in stocks. If we see further volatility surrounding the debt ceiling deadline or a rapid change in the belligerent enthusiasm for stocks, it may provide a bid for precious metals like gold and silver as a safe-haven trade.