This month's risky level is at an all-time high at 15,932 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,490 and 16,775. The upside to these levels is 9% and 10.9%, while the downside to the first annual level is 16.1%. This week, I wrote four articles concerning topping out issues. On Wednesday, I wrote, Tracking Sector ETF Bubble Characteristics where I showed that eight of 11 key sector-oriented exchange-traded funds may have peaked in the Sept. 19/Sept. 20 window.
All 11 ETFs ended Wednesday below their 50-day SMAs. Six popped back above these key levels, while four came back to a test and one stayed below its 50-day SMA. All 11 stayed shy of the risky levels I showed in the table in that report. Also on Wednesday, I wrote, The Ups and Downs Among Internet Stocks, and surprisingly while these stocks rebounded on Thursday, the upside volatility was muted vs. the recent downside. For example, Google ( GOOG) ($868.24 vs. $853.67 on Oct. 9) stayed below my semiannual pivot and risky level at $880.49 and $892.48. On Thursday, I wrote, 11 Dow Components vs. Their 200-Day Moving Averages, and the stocks that flipped back above their 200-day SMAs are Cisco Systems ( CSCO), Intel Corp ( INTC), Pfizer ( PFE), and Procter & Gamble ( PG). The overall DJIA tested and held its 200-day as shown above. That reflects that this average experienced a reversion to the mean.
Also on Thursday, I wrote, Four 'Too Big to Fail' Regional Banks Are Above 200-Day SMA where I showed that 22 of the 24 stocks in the regional banking index were below their 50-day SMAs. Only four of the banks moved back above their 50-day SMAs including the following: Bank of New York ( BK), First Niagara ( FNFG), Peoples United ( PBCT) and US Bancorp ( USB). Northern Trust ( NTRS) was the only bank that was below its 200-day SMA and it stayed below. My semiannual pivot at 3759 on the Nasdaq has been a strong magnet with monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 15,932, 16,490 and 16,775 Dow Industrials, 1746.4, 1743.5 and 1853.8 S&P 500, 3830 and 4025 Nasdaq, 6811, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1092.46, 1089.42 and 1163.21 Russell 2000.
My annual value levels remain at 12,696 Dow Industrials; 1348.3 S&P 500; 2806 Nasdaq; 5469 Dow Transports; and 809.54 Russell 2000. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.Follow @SuttmeierThis article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.