NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Here we go again trying to confirm recent market highs as cycle highs. All five of the major equity averages must have negative weekly chart profiles simultaneously. That won't happen this week as the weekly charts for the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 remain positive but overbought.The weekly charts attempted to time the May highs as cycle highs, but all five of the major equity averages didn't shift to negative. Similarly, we tried to confirm the early August highs as cycle highs, but again all five major averages didn't shift to negative, preventing this confirmation. Today the only major average that could have a negative weekly chart is the Dow Jones Industrial Average given a close today below its five-week modified moving average at 15,182.
This month's risky level is at an all-time high at 15,932 with semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,490 and 16,775. The upside to these levels is 9% and 10.9%, while the downside to the first annual level is 16.1%. This week, I wrote four articles concerning topping out issues. On Wednesday, I wrote, Tracking Sector ETF Bubble Characteristics where I showed that eight of 11 key sector-oriented exchange-traded funds may have peaked in the Sept. 19/Sept. 20 window. The Ups and Downs Among Internet Stocks, and surprisingly while these stocks rebounded on Thursday, the upside volatility was muted vs. the recent downside. For example, Google ( GOOG) ($868.24 vs. $853.67 on Oct. 9) stayed below my semiannual pivot and risky level at $880.49 and $892.48. On Thursday, I wrote, 11 Dow Components vs. Their 200-Day Moving Averages, and the stocks that flipped back above their 200-day SMAs are Cisco Systems ( CSCO), Intel Corp ( INTC), Pfizer ( PFE), and Procter & Gamble ( PG). The overall DJIA tested and held its 200-day as shown above. That reflects that this average experienced a reversion to the mean. Four 'Too Big to Fail' Regional Banks Are Above 200-Day SMA where I showed that 22 of the 24 stocks in the regional banking index were below their 50-day SMAs. Only four of the banks moved back above their 50-day SMAs including the following: Bank of New York ( BK), First Niagara ( FNFG), Peoples United ( PBCT) and US Bancorp ( USB). Northern Trust ( NTRS) was the only bank that was below its 200-day SMA and it stayed below. My semiannual pivot at 3759 on the Nasdaq has been a strong magnet with monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 15,932, 16,490 and 16,775 Dow Industrials, 1746.4, 1743.5 and 1853.8 S&P 500, 3830 and 4025 Nasdaq, 6811, 7104 and 7205 Dow Transports and 1092.46, 1089.42 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. Follow @Suttmeier This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.