And despite a recent slowdown in emerging markets, most U.S. business leaders see Latin America (20 percent) as the most promising region for export trade growth in the near term, followed by China (13 percent) and Canada (six percent), the HSBC report shows.

“The U.S. has good access to a wide range of export markets because of its geographical position, openness to trade and competitiveness, especially in transport equipment and industrial machinery,” said Prabhat Vira, Regional Head of Global Trade and Receivables Finance in North America for HSBC. “Rising middle classes across Asia’s rapidly emerging markets will drive significant infrastructure demand in the region. And as China looks to scale the value chain in terms of the goods it manufactures, there is a strong opportunity for developed economies like the U.S. to supply sophisticated investment equipment to the country’s producers.”

Transport equipment helping power U.S. export growth to China

In fact, the HSBC Trade Forecast shows that U.S. transport exports to China are expected to rise by over 10 percent to the 2030s. Other export findings include:
  • U.S. exports to China will more than double over the next decades, from seven percent today to 18 percent in 2040;
  • Canada is and will remain the most important export market for the U.S. in the next two decades;
  • Average growth in U.S. exports will be close to six percent annually to 2030.

Need to renew or replace capital stock fueling U.S. import growth

Demand for infrastructure products in developed markets remains strong because economies like the U.S. must renew and replace existing capital stock to maintain their own competitive advantage in supplying investment goods to the rest of the world, the report shows. In fact, U.S. imports of transport equipment and information, communications and technology equipment are set to account for over half the growth in U.S. imports in the long term, the report finds. Other import findings include:
  • By 2020, India will overtake the U.S. to become the lead importer of goods for infrastructure, as it invests to build its domestic networks, and China will outpace the U.S. to become the top importer of investment equipment, as it invests to boost its manufacturing productivity.

For a copy of the U.S. Global Connections Report, please visit http://www.globalconnections.hsbc.com/. Additionally, for the first time, U.S. businesses can map trade flows and sector growth trends via a new, free HSBC Trade Forecast Tool available at https://globalconnections.hsbc.com/global/en/tools-data.

An infographic which portrays key findings from the latest trade forecast is also available upon request.

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