And despite a recent slowdown in emerging markets, most U.S. business leaders see Latin America (20 percent) as the most promising region for export trade growth in the near term, followed by China (13 percent) and Canada (six percent), the HSBC report shows.“The U.S. has good access to a wide range of export markets because of its geographical position, openness to trade and competitiveness, especially in transport equipment and industrial machinery,” said Prabhat Vira, Regional Head of Global Trade and Receivables Finance in North America for HSBC. “Rising middle classes across Asia’s rapidly emerging markets will drive significant infrastructure demand in the region. And as China looks to scale the value chain in terms of the goods it manufactures, there is a strong opportunity for developed economies like the U.S. to supply sophisticated investment equipment to the country’s producers.” Transport equipment helping power U.S. export growth to China In fact, the HSBC Trade Forecast shows that U.S. transport exports to China are expected to rise by over 10 percent to the 2030s. Other export findings include:
- U.S. exports to China will more than double over the next decades, from seven percent today to 18 percent in 2040;
- Canada is and will remain the most important export market for the U.S. in the next two decades;
- Average growth in U.S. exports will be close to six percent annually to 2030.
- By 2020, India will overtake the U.S. to become the lead importer of goods for infrastructure, as it invests to build its domestic networks, and China will outpace the U.S. to become the top importer of investment equipment, as it invests to boost its manufacturing productivity.
1To equip for growth, countries around the world need:
- Goods for infrastructure e.g. metals, minerals, buildings and transport equipment
- Investment equipment e.g. specialised machinery, machinery for power generation, metal working machinery, office equipment, electrics and professional/scientific instruments