NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Biotech stock bubble alert: On Wednesday, Oppenheimer analyst Boris Peaker jacks his Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX) price target to $40 from $25. Why? Because Peaker predicts an experimental Celldex cancer drug with no human clinical data today will deliver $8 billion (!!!) in sales in 2025.
Our valuation revision is based on the addition of CDX-1127 to our model. We did not make any changes to our valuation of rindo ($5/share), CDX-011 ($18/share), CDX-1135 ($2/share), and added CDX-1127 ($15/share). We believe that CDX-1127 holds the largest commercial potential compared to CDLX's other assets. However, given the early stage of development, we assume only a 15% probability of success for CDX-1127 at this time and look toward the anticipated data in November to further refine our CDX-1127 NPV.
A 15% probability of success for CDX-1127 yet it's still worth $15 per share to Celldex today. Why peak out at only $8 billion in sales? Why not $10 billion? $20 billion? You're just throwing darts blindfolded, Boris, so why not go really big?
We've seen sell-side analysts gin up a lot of crazy excuses to justify higher valuations for development-stage biotech companies these days, but Peaker's rationalization for Celldex is preposterous.
David Sobek believes the only bubble in biotech today is people warning/complaining about biotech stock bubbles. But the housing bubble began when real estate brokers start selling split-level ranches in Kissimmee, Fla, for $2 million each without anyone raising an eyebrow. Peering 12 years into the future to predict $8 billion in sales for a drug with no clinical data today is no different.