- a regional-to-national story; and
- heading into a government shutdown.
Look for Dunkin to Cover the Map Posted at 4:19 p.m. EDT on Friday, Sept. 27 Sometimes themes in our business get so ingrained that you speak in shorthand about them, when they are actually as arcane as the infield fly rule or the cover 2 defense. Such is the case with the "regional-to-national" concept I am always harping on. I did it again last night on "Mad Money" when I said Dunkin Brands ( DNKN) is the quintessential regional-to-national story that you have to own. I might as well have said to someone who has never watched a football game in their life that Dunkin is running a read option play where he hits the A gap. So let me go over it in English, because second nature doesn't cut it with first-nature people. When I was still in law school, trading from my dirty linoleum floor, I read a book by Peter Lynch -- who is still perhaps the greatest mutual fund investor of our time -- called One Up on Wall Street. This revolutionary book told you how regular investors can beat the big boys at their own game. I know: These days, when I say that home gamers can beat the professionals, a whole flock of managers says I am being reckless. But Peter Lynch, who is the envy of many who knock me, knew better. A key tenet of Lynch's philosophy was that, if you keep your eyes open and just act on your instincts, after you have done some homework on a company, you can do fabulously in the market. For example, he said, if you like a store or a restaurant -- I mean, really like it -- others will, too. So if you look up where the company has stores and you see a substantial part of the country doesn't yet have a store that you like, there's a good chance, if the balance sheet is sound, that you might have a winner.
Strategizing for a Shutdown Posted at 11:54 a.m. EDT on Thursday, Sept. 26 You have to wonder how we can have a big move up that can be sustained given how much we hear about what can happen in a government shutdown. How do you get excited ahead of an event that could cut a percent out of gross national product? How do you start buying stocks when numbers are too high for all but the most international of companies? JCP) which, from all the stories I have read, does need to raise money. But let's think this through. One of the hardest hit areas in the 1995-1996 shutdown was travel. Non-essential services like passport issuances and national parks were shut down. You saw a dramatic decline in travel, which was the weakness that reverberated through the system. We know that the sequester knocked off sales for the airlines -- almost all referenced the sequester as a point of weakness. One can only imagine how badly this one will hurt the airlines, which have been a terrific leader of the bull market. Now consider how weak Hertz ( HTZ) is today, citing airline traffic. That was a hideous downside surprise -- the worst I have seen. But I wouldn't buy it ahead of a shutdown; I would short it. The rental car business was another leader in this market because of the consolidation in the industry. JPM), that's for certain. At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, was long JPM.