NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- BlackBerry's ( BBRY) sudden and unexpected move on its consumer business makes the deal team at Microsoft ( MSFT) appear brilliant for locking down the wireless assets of Nokia ( NOK).The real winner from the end of consumer BlackBerry phones appears to be Microsoft. Apple ( AAPL) and Android phones already enjoy the majority of market share that cutting up BlackBerry's consumer segment won't amount to much. Let's take a look at BlackBerry and what investors can expect. valuation assessment of BlackBerry to temper irrational exuberance. The article was in response to the shares soaring higher on news BlackBerry was looking for a buyer. Here's the germane takeaway: "As an investor, I wouldn't try to get cute and hold out for everything you can. This is a buyer's market, and every participant knows it. A year ago, BlackBerry was still cash-flow positive and was months away from releasing BB10. That's a whole different landscape than BlackBerry currently finds itself navigating. "After adjusting the balance sheet from a bird's eye view, I think BlackBerry has scrap sale assets near $7.5 billion. Remove $3.6 billion in liabilities and you have a total value near $4 billion. "BlackBerry has 515 million shares, so you take $4 billion divided by 515 million shares, leaves you with $7.75 per share as a starting point. The right buyer may view BlackBerry as a company that can generate profits under his or her management, and that brings us to a buyout valuation above $14 a share." The numbers have changed. If you've been keeping score, about a year ago I placed the scrap value slightly higher than $12 a share and that was before announcing they started bleeding cash. After BlackBerry 10 missed the last holiday shopping season because of endless delays and excuses, and only seconds away from kicking off the busiest shopping season of the year, BlackBerry's CEO Thorsten Heins decides now is the time to pull the plug on smartphones?
Or... Sales of handsets are so bleak and burning through cash at such an accelerating rate that management believes even the best selling season of the year will result in increasing losses. It's hard to imagine sales have imploded on a scale that renders the fourth quarter a loser, but either way all related assets should be valued at scrap value. After removing non-cash losses from inventory charges, the operating losses should come in between $20 million to $30 million from $1.6 billion in revenue. At face value, that's a long way from not being able to sell phones at a profit during the fourth quarter, leaving the most likely scenario BlackBerry is nearing a "strategic alternative." Samsung, LG and HTC certainly make the list of usual suspects for contenders, albeit politically one has to give the edge to Google ( GOOG), Microsoft ( MSFT) and maybe even a longshot Yahoo! ( YHOO). At the rate Yahoo!'s CEO Marissa Mayer is buying companies, Yahoo! might just enter the fray if for no other reason than to force Google or Microsoft to pay up. Follow @RobertWeinstein This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.