How Capital Markets Will React to FOMC News

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- In my opinion, Federal Reserve policy failed as soon as the FOMC cut the federal funds rate below 3% on March 18, 2008, to 2.25%. It was Dec. 16, 2008, when the Fed cut this rate to 0%, where it could remain for years to come if Janet Yellen becomes the next Fed chairman in early 2014.

The Fed's quantitative easing programs began in late November 2008 when the Federal Reserve Open Market Trading Desk in New York began to purchase $600 billion in mortgage-backed securities. Two years later the Fed announced another round of purchases and this time it was $600 billion in longer-dated U.S. Treasuries by the end of second quarter of 2011. This second wave was dubbed QE2.

QE3 was announced on Sept. 13, 2012, and QE4 was announced on Dec. 12, 2012. QE3 is the purchase of $40 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities and QE4 added another $45 billion of longer-dated Treasuries per month. There has been talk that the Fed will begin to reduce these purchases following today's FOMC meeting. Some say yes, others say no, I say it doesn't matter as the program has failed in its objective, which is to lower mortgage rates.

Before QE3 and QE4 were implemented the yield on the Treasury 10-year note traded as low as 1.377% on July 25, 2012. The lowest point for this year is 1.612% set on May 1, just about the time when speculation began that the FOMC will likely taper securities purchases following today's FOMC meeting. The high yield in anticipation of tapering has been 3.007% set on Sept. 6. Instead of pushing mortgage rates lower as intended, the bond market became worried about future inflation that the massive QE's could create, and for this reason the combination of the QEs and the 0% federal funds rate has been a failed monetary policy.

Continue to trade the bond market just like a stock using iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ( TLT) ($103.71). The Treasury ETF remains below its 50-day simple moving average at $105.67 after setting a multi-year low at $102.11 on Aug. 21. The weekly chart shows an oversold condition with the five-week modified moving average at $105.25 and the 200-week SMA at $107.77. This week's value level is $100.96 with a monthly pivot at $105.75. My semiannual value level lags at $92.32 with annual risky levels at $116.26 and $120.42.

Continue to trade the gold market just like a stock using SPDR Gold Trust ( GLD) ($126.50). The ETF is below its 50-day SMA at $129.14 with the 200-day SMA at $143.62. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at $129.81 and the 200-week SMA at $143.36. My monthly value level is $118.35 with a weekly risky level is $135.75.

Continue to trade crude oil using the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ( XLE) ($84.31) The EFT traded to a new multi-year high at $84.66 on Monday. The 50-day and 200-day SMAs are supports at $82.41 and $78.61. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $82.75 and the 200-week SMA at $68.78. My weekly value level is $81.68 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at $87.91 and $88.35.

For the major equity averages the Russell 2000 tested a new all-time high at 1066.39 at Tuesday's close. The Nasdaq set a new multi-year high at 3756.24 on Monday staying shy of my semiannual risky level at 3759. The other three major averages stayed below their all-time highs at 15,658.43 for the Dow Industrial Average, set on Aug. 2, 1709.67 for the S&P 500 set on Aug. 2 and 6686.86 Dow transportation average set on Aug. 1.

It seems highly likely that all five major averages will power to new highs given a positive reaction to the Fed statement and to comments by Ben Bernanke at his press conference this afternoon.

If the Nasdaq has a weekly close above 3759 the upside is to my semiannual risky levels at 16,490 Dow Industrial Average, 1743.5 on the S&P 500, 7104 Dow transports and 1089.43 on the Russell 2000. As I have said before, if you cannot confirm cycle highs, new highs will likely follow.

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg ETF Fund ( DIA) ($155.29) is above its 50-day SMA at $152.68 with the 200-day SMA at $145.42 with the Aug. 2 high at $156.24. The weekly chart shifts to positive with a weekly close above the five-week MMA at $152.22. My weekly value level is $149.35 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at $163.25 and $164.06.

PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1 ( QQQ) ($78.37) is above its 50-day SMA at $76.06 with the 200-day SMA at $70.80 and set a multi-year high at $78.72 on Monday. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $76.52. My quarterly value level is $73.00 with monthly and weekly pivots at $78.18 and $78.63 with semiannual risky levels at $79.76 and $80.87.
Read: HED-HERE

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( SPY) ($171.07) is above its 50-day SMA at $167.69 with the 200-day SMA at $157.92 and new all time high at $171.24 set on Monday. The weekly chart shifts to positive with a weekly close above its five-week MMA at $167.56. My weekly value level is $166.42 with a semiannual risky level at $174.10.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.

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