The rally in the S&P has been breaking the hearts of the bears for years. This is the stuff that kills market timers like Bob Prechter and Bert Dohmen. They get run over all year calling highs, calling for the apocalypse, and then they go quiet when the markets start going back up again. Until the Fed declares its full intentions to shut down the bond-buying program,why fight it?
Sure there have been some S&P corrections, but until the program is fully removed we won't know what the markets are made of. The end of bond buying might, like every other supposed reason for a crash, scare everyone into selling, only to watch the market go back up. If there is a lesson learned, it's that being a buyer of the S&P has paid off far better than being a seller.
The current price action in the S&P is for a small pullback or selloff early in the day, followed by more of the low-volume upside grind we have been seeing for the last two weeks. In most cases the two days leading up to the Fed's announcement are slow. But with the S&P up so much last week, who's to say the gains will not continue?
The current thinking is that the ES could rally right up to the meeting and then sell off during. What we do know is the S&P continues to prove the crowd wrong.
Sell the early rally and buy weakness and open the Ned Davis S&P cash study. The September quad witching stats are bullish all week and it's all buy stops up from 1697 to 1712.
As always, use stops and keep an eye on the 10-handle rule. Don't forget to catch MrTopStep on The Closing Print video found under the OptionsTV page (top bar). We report directly from the SPX pits, wrapping up the day and positioning for trade tomorrow.
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