NEW YORK ( ETF Expert) -- Take a quick walk with me down Flashback Lane. The year is 2004. Homes, by most measures, are no longer affordable. Yet home prices did not peak until two years later in the early months of 2006.The stock market, a forward-looking beast, tends to recognize bad (and good) trends roughly six months in advance. Not surprisingly then, one of the premier home builders, Toll Brothers ( TOL), catapulted roughly 200% from $20 per share to $60 per share between the start of the bubble in 2004 and mid-2005. Toll Brothers then spent the next six months depreciating 50% in value as it dropped back down to $30 per share. It made it to $20 and below by the end of the real-estate collapse in late 2008.