$ARIA Can someone remind me of that short thesis again? Favus? Bueller? Anyone?— Colfax (@ColfaxCapital) September 6, 2013I described the Ariad Pharmaceuticals ( ARIA) short thesis in March and it hasn't changed significantly. Shorts continue to believe Iclusig's cardiac and other toxicities will prevent the chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) drug from generating the blockbuster sales already baked into the company's current $4 billion market valuation. Earlier this week, I connected with a couple of institutional investors shorting Ariad for an update. Iclusig total (TRx) script growth is flattening out while new (NRx) scripts are trending down, suggesting Ariad has saturated the T315I CML patient population (third line) and isn't attracting significant numbers of second-line CML patients to Iclusig therapy. Ariad is likely to deliver Iclusig sales this year that meet Street expectations, but next year's consensus sales forecast will come down.