'Fast Money' Recap: How 'Smart Money' Sees Syria

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- The broader market slowly traded lower throughout the day, ending the session with small losses.

President Obama has yet to make a final decision on when or if the U.S. military will intervene in Syria, after Secretary of State John Kerry said there was "clear proof" the Assad regime used chemical weapons in a recent attack.

Retired colonel Jack Jacobs, an analyst for MSNBC, was a guest on the show and said a U.S. attack on Syria should be this weekend if it's going to happen. If there are military strikes, they should last between one to three days and involve no ground forces.

However, Jacobs said he doesn't think the reward justifies the risk of such an attack.

Since 1991, the stock market has generally reacted positively following a U.S. airstrike. On average, the S&P 500 has been up 1.03% one week later, 1.93% two weeks later and 3.32% four-weeks later. Crude oil has shown a similar pattern.

Brian Kelly said he went long crude oil on Friday and is holding it through the weekend. He added there's a possibility there could be a supply disruption, depending on how other countries react to a possible attack on Syria.

Steve Grasso said the window is very small for the military to carry out a strike and that "smart money" is likely buying Friday's weakness. He expects a rally next week.

Erin Gibbs said investors seem to be flowing to defensive stocks for their safety. She added that higher oil could hurt the U.S. GDP.

Guy Adami thinks the market will likely open higher on Tuesday and stressed that support near 1,625 in the S&P 500 needs to hold, otherwise it could test the 200-day moving average at 1,545.

Despite the geopolitical tension, gold has failed to move higher, falling for a third straight session. Kelly said the commodity has already had a massive run and the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve and its bond tapering makes this asset a "no touch" until after the Fed meeting in September.

Jeffrey Saut, managing director at Raymond James, said that if nothing happens over the weekend, the markets will likely rally next week. However, he said the markets are still in a correction and will bottom in mid-September, with the S&P 500 near 1,530 to 1,560.

Salesforce.com ( CRM) was the first stock on the show's "Pops & Drops" segment after jumping 13% this week. Grasso said he does not like to chase names after moves like this. He added that traders should wait a couple of days before buying.

Groupon ( GRPN) popped 3%. Adami said the stock is too volatile for him, but that it is still in a defined uptrend.

The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF ( GDX) slumped 7% and Kelly said that higher oil will increase the miners' input costs.

Wells Fargo ( WFC) dropped 4% this week and Gibbs said she remains long, but would not recommend this level for starting a new position.

Adami said that if there is an attack on Syria over the weekend, crude oil prices will have a knee-jerk reaction higher, before selling off and going lower.

Kelly said it seems like Fed tapering is already priced into the bond market, as seen by good economic numbers actually sending yields lower. He added that an attack on Syria doesn't necessarily alter the outcome of the tapering decision.

For their final trades, Adami was buying Pacific Sunwear ( PSUN) and Gibbs said to buy Safeway ( SWY). Grasso was a buyer of the broader market via the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY) and Kelly was buying grains, via the iPath DJ-UBS Grains Total Return ETN ( JJG).

-- Written by Bret Kenwell in Petoskey, Mich.

Follow TheStreet.com on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.
Bret Kenwell currently writes, blogs and also contributes to Robert Weinstein's Weekly Options Newsletter. Focuses on short-to-intermediate-term trading opportunities that can be exposed via options. He prefers to use debit trades on momentum setups and credit trades on support/resistance setups. He also focuses on building long-term wealth by searching for consistent, quality dividend paying companies and long-term growth companies. He considers himself the surfer, not the wave, in relation to the market and himself. He has no allegiance to either the bull side or the bear side.