Campbell, Krispy Kreme and Retailers Earnings Preview

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Today I preview six more retail-oriented companies that report quarterly results on Thursday. Five stocks are in the retail-wholesale sector and four of these are buy-rated according to ValuEngine. The sixth stock is a hold-rated company in the consumer staples sector.

Stocks remain fundamentally overvalued and under a ValuEngine valuation warning with 75.9% of all stocks overvalued, 43% by 20% or move. The retail-wholesale sector is 24.7% overvalued with the consumer staples sector 18.6.

This morning the Conference Board releases it reading on Consumer Confidence for August and the consensus calls for steady print at 80.0. Given last Friday's disappointing new home sales and Monday's weak durable goods orders we would not be surprised by a weaker than expected confidence report. Keep in mind that the 90 to 110 is the neutral zone for this data release.

The technicals among the major equity averages remain mixed. The Dow Industrial Average continues to have a negative weekly chart profile with the five-week modified moving average at 15,248. The S&P 500 shows declining momentum and a weekly close below its five-week MMA at 1666.4 gives this average a negative weekly chart profile. The Nasdaq continues to be positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at 3591 and the Aug. 5 multi-year high in reach at 3694.18. The Dow transportation average is neutral with declining weekly momentum and the index above its five-week MMA at 6437. The Russell 2000 has a positive but overbought weekly chart profile with the five-week MMA at 1028.55 and the August 5 all time high at 1063.52.

One of the six stocks previewed today is undervalued and three of the other five are overvalued by more than 20%. One stock is down 16% over the last 12 months, while four have gained more than 16%. All six are trading above their 200-day SMAs, which reflects the risk of reversion to the mean.

Reading the Table

OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.

Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.

Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.

Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.

The retailer of contemporary woman's apparel and accessories Bebe Stores ( BEBE) ($5.77) traded to a 2013 high at $6.14 on Aug. 15 and has been above its 200-day SMA at $4.71 since April 24 and has been trading back and forth around its 50-day SMA at $5.75 since June 21. My semiannual value level is $4.85 with a quarterly pivot is $5.97 and monthly risky level at $6.24.

The provider of soups, sauces and biscuits Campbell Soup ( CPB) ($45.40) set a multi-year high at $48.83 on May 20 then traded as low as $42.32 on June 3. My semiannual value level is $43.92 with a weekly pivot at $48.22 and monthly risky level $48.97.

The discount general store Fred's ( FRED) ($16.44) set a multi-year high at $17.71 on August 1 then fell to $16.05 on Aug. 19 and ended Friday just below its 50-day SMA at $16.60. My semiannual value level is $14.83 with a semiannual pivot at $16.08 and weekly risky level at $18.13.

The premium quality doughnut maker Krispy Kreme Doughnuts ( KKD) ($22.89) set a multi-year high at $23.56 on Monday. My semiannual value level is $14.78 with a monthly pivot at $22.12 and weekly risky level at $24.51.

The value-oriented retailer of family footwear Shoe Carnival ( SCVL) ($26.32) set a multi-year high at $27.22 on Aug. 5. My monthly value level is $23.08 with a semiannual risky level at $28.38.

The action sports apparel and footwear retailer Zumiez ( ZUMZ) ($26.34) set its 2013 high at $33.50 on May 22 then traded as low as $25.84 on Friday vs. its 200-day SMA at $25.31. My weekly pivot is $27.65 with a monthly risky level at $30.65.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.