NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Since the beginning of July, we have seen a steady push higher in gold prices and one of the central market questions at this stage is whether or not these moves mark a short term correction in the latest downtrend or a true reversal that can be supported with fundamental arguments.At the very least, we can say that there is a number of opposing factors that should be taken into consideration, and that the backdrop is not entirely negative. But valuations in the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF ( SPY) are still lower by nearly 16% even with these latest rallies, so the broader picture shows that there is still a lot of ground to make up before we can say that the bear run seen in the early parts of the year has been overcome. A series of long liquidations from several large investors (for example George Soros and John Paulson) helped to fuel the bearish downturns that marked the early parts of the year. From a macro perspective, expected policy changes from the Federal Reserve have also weighed, as any reductions in quantitative easing stimulus will likely set the U.S. dollar on a course for long term strength -- not only against its major currency counterparts but against the commodities space as well. In addition to this, it should be remembered that gold is inversely correlated to stock markets and we are still holding within striking distance of the all-time highs in the S&P 500. And since the latest earnings season largely surpassed expectations (and price-to-earnings valuations still look attractive on an historical basis) there's little reason to believe that these trends will end any time soon. For these reasons, the safe haven allure of gold is unlikely to be a central driver for new bull trends in coming months.