Tiffany, Williams-Sonoma Headline Wednesday Earnings

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Today we preview eight retail-oriented companies that report quarterly results on Tuesday and Wednesday. The six that are buy-rated according to ValuEngine are in the retail-wholesale sector. The two that are hold-rated are in the consumer discretionary sector.

Stocks begin the week under the fundamental backdrop of a continued ValuEngine valuation warning with 75.9% of all stocks overvalued, 43% by 20% or move. The retail-wholesale sector is 24.7% overvalued with the consumer discretionary sector 24.9% overvalued.

In the equity markets the major averages show mixed weekly chart profiles. The Dow Industrial Average ended last week with a negative weekly chart profile, but not the other major averages. The S&P 500 is below its five-week modified moving average, but its weekly momentum remains overbought. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 ended the week positive but overbought. Dow transports ended the week with a neutral weekly chart profile, a close above its five-week MMA but with declining momentum. All five must have negative weekly chart profiles to signal that the early-August highs are cycle highs. Without these signals, new highs are likely in September.

Four of the eight stocks are overvalued by more than 20%. Two stocks are down 8.9% to 12.7% over the last 12 months, while five gained more than 20%. Two are trading below their 200-day simple moving averages, while five show risk of a reversion to the mean by being above their 200-day SMAs. The eighth stock tested its 200-day SMA on weakness last week.

Reading the Table

OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.

Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.

Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.

Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.

Private label casual clothing retailer Chico's FAS ( CHS) ($15.75) traded to a new 52-week low at $15.37 on Friday. My annual value level is $11.01 with a quarterly pivot is $15.88 and annual risky level at $16.25.

Specialty retailer of both woman's and men's apparel Express ( EXPR) ($19.44) set its 2013 high at $23.25 on Aug. 1. My quarterly value level is $16.65 with a weekly risky level $21.80.

The designer of casual apparel, Guess ( GES) ($28.21) set its 2013 high at $34.36 on Aug. 5 then fell to its 200-day simple moving average at $28.04 on Friday. My quarterly value level is $15.00 with a weekly risky level at $31.78.

Perishable food retailer Fresh Market ( TFM) ($55.15) set its 2013 high at $57.16 on Aug. 13 then held its 50-day SMA at $52.71 on Aug. 19. My monthly value level is $44.20 with a quarterly pivot at $56.85 and weekly risky level at $58.05.

Jewelry chain Tiffany ( TIF) ($82.00) set a multi-year high at $82.84 on Aug. 14. My annual value level is $64.34 with a monthly pivot at $83.93 and semiannual risky level at $86.69.

The provider of the first commercially available digital video recorder TIVO ( TIVO) ($11.33) set a 2013 low at $10.47 on Aug. 19 then rebounded to a close above its 50-day SMA at $11.18 on Friday. My quarterly value level is $11.00 with an annual pivot at $11.49 and monthly risky level at $12.35.

Specialty retailer Williams-Sonoma ( WSM) ($58.74) set a multi-year high at $61.38 on Aug. 5 then held its 50-day SMA at $58.01 at Friday's low. My quarterly value level is $50.79 with a semiannual pivot at $59.42 and a weekly risky level at $61.81.

Jewelry retailer Zale ( ZLC) ($8.99) set a multi-year high at $10.49 on Aug. 14.but closed Friday below its 50-day SMA at $9.14. My monthly value level is $7.72 with a weekly risky level at $9.13.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.

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