On July 17 eight homebuilders were above their 200-day simple moving averages reflecting the risk of the reversion to the mean. At Friday's closes 10 are below their 200-day SMA after all 11 returned to their mean since July 17. Now these homebuilders are attempting to build new foundations.
Reading the Table
OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine. VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy. Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage. Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months. Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual. Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted. Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.
Beazer Homes ( BZH) ($17.38 vs. $18.44 on July 15) set its multi-year at $23.29 on May 20 and returned to its 200-day SMA on a reversion to the mean at $17.20 on June 14. My semiannual value level is $14.82 with a weekly pivot at $17.17, the 200-day SMA at $17.15 and monthly risky level at $19.71. DR Horton ( DHI) ($19.00 vs. $21.72 on July 15) set its multi-year at $27.74 on May 15 and returned to its 200-day SMA on a reversion to the mean at $22.27 on June 20. My annual value level is $16.05 with a semiannual pivot at $21.19, the 200-day SMA at $22.18 and monthly risky level at $23.78.