Fossil, Michael Kors Beat, Four Go to the Woodshed

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Stocks slipped on Tuesday on comments by Federal Reserve officials saying the FOMC would likely opt for some tapering of QE3 and QE4 purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities and longer dated Treasuries as early as next month.

Two key levels came into play among the five major equity averages. The Nasdaq traded below my monthly pivot at 3663, but closed above it. The Russell 2000 closed just below its weekly pivot at 1053.08. Weakness in these two indices is important to watch as they are the most overbought on their weekly charts.

Fundamentally the ValuEngine valuation warning continues with 76.7% of all stocks overvalued with 44.1% overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are overvalued, 14 by double-digit percentages including 10 overvalued by more than 20%.

Seven of the eight companies that reported quarterly results premarket on Tuesday handily beat EPS Wall Street estimates. I profiled these eight stocks on August 5 in, Michael Kors, Dish and Molson Coors Earnings Preview. Today I provide a scorecard for these stocks, and profile four stocks of interest that were taken to the investor woodshed on company specific negative news.

Scorecard from stocks that reported earnings results premarket on Tuesday:

Archer Daniels ( ADM) ($37.89) beat estimates by 4 cents earning 46 cents a share. The stock opened lower on Tuesday but then traded up to a new multi-year high at $38.18 despite having a sell rating by ValuEngine. My semiannual value level is $33.38 with a monthly pivot at $38.75 and annual risky level is $39.17.

CVS Caremark ( CVS) ($59.89) beat estimates by 4 cents earning 97 cents a share. The stock traded down to its 50-day simple moving average at $59.53 on Tuesday even with a buy rating. My quarterly value level is $58.42 with a weekly pivot at $61.65 and monthly risky level at $64.95.

Dish Networks ( DISH) ($44.91) beat estimates by 6 cents earning 60 cents a share. The hold rated stock opened lower trading down to $43.60 then rebounded to $46.00. My semiannual value level is $43.28 with a weekly risky level at $47.31.

Fossil ( FOSL) ($126.55) was downgraded by Barclays on Monday and the stock declined to its 50-day SMA at $107.32. Then premarket on Tuesday the company handily beat estimates by 16 cents a share earning $1.10. The buy rated stock gapped higher trading to a new 2013 high at $129.25. My monthly value level is $119.22 with a semiannual pivot at $123.93 and a semiannual risky level at $134.16.

Michael Kors ( KORS) ($70.39) beat estimates by 12 cents earning 61 cents. The hold rated stock traded up to a new multi-year high at $71.50. Kors is above my monthly pivot at $66.78.

Louisiana Pac ( LPX) ($16.84) beat estimates by 10 cents earning 41 cents. The hold rated stock opened higher then traded down to the 50-day SMA at $16.54. My weekly value level is $16.01 with a monthly pivot at $17.73 and semiannual risky level at $17.94.

Molson Coors ( TAP) ($53.26) beat estimates by 12 cents earning $1.51. The buy rated stock traded up to a new multi-year high at $53.52. My semiannual value level is $47.92 with a weekly pivot at $48.66 and monthly risky level at $54.12.

Tidewater ( TDW) ($56.90) missed estimate by 8 cents earning 68 cents. The sell rated stock declined to $54.98. My monthly value level is $54.72 with semiannual and annual pivots at $56.29, $56.82 and $59.59, and an annual risky level at $63.31.

Stocks taken to the woodshed:

American Eagle Outfitters ( AEO) ($17.57) fell from $19.97 at Monday's close to a new 2013 low of $16.60 after the teen retailer warned that quarterly results would be as much as 52% lower than its forecast. The buy rated stock is below monthly and semiannual pivots at $18.11 and $18.75.

Checkpoint Systems ( CKP) ($15.78) fell from a multi-year high at $17.78 on Monday to a test of its 50-day SMA at $15.21 after missing estimates by 2 cents earning 11 cents a share. Checkpoint makes surveillance systems bar code labeling products for retailers. The stock has a strong sell rating with an annual value level at $15.04 with an annual pivot at $15.80 and a monthly risky at $18.36.

McDermott International ( MDR) ($6.93) fell from Monday's close at $8.73 to a new multi-year low at $6.92 after missing EPS estimates by 59 cents after the close on Monday reporting a loss of 56 cents. The company provides engineering and construction services for industrial uses including offshore oil and natural gas industries. My weekly pivot is $8.11 with a semiannual risky level at $9.96.

TravelCenters of America ( TA) ($8.47) declined from $11.70 at Monday's close down to the 200-day SMA at $8.20 after missing estimates by 43 cents earning 54 cents. TravelCenters' travel centers are found mostly off the Interstate Highway System across the country primarily serving the trucking industry. I have been giving the transportation sector an avoid-source of funds rating, so a weak report from a company that services this sector came as no surprise to me. My quarterly value level is $8.04 with a semiannual pivot at $9.32 and monthly risky level at $12.50. The extent of this significant decline may be overdone as the stock has been upgraded to strong buy this morning.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.
Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.

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