MasterCard, Hess, Whole Foods Earnings Preview

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- This week is packed with important economic data and many more earnings reports. In addition, the tapering versus papering debate continues with the FOMC meeting statement on Wednesday.

On Tuesday the Conference Board releases its consumer confidence reading for July and the consensus calls for continued improvement to 84.0. This reading will still be below the neutral zone at 90 to 110, so the real story will be that consumers are less depressed, not more confident.

On Wednesday the advance reading for second quarter GDP is expected to show continued slow growth at 1.3%. The Chicago PMI release should rise to 54.0.

On Thursday Jobless Claims should remain below the recessionary threshold of 350,000, and the national ISM index should rise to 53.0 in July. Construction spending is projected to rise by 1.0%, but as I suggested in my July 24 story Downgrades Point to Weak Construction Spending Ahead many stocks that support construction have been downgraded to sell according to www.ValuEngine.com.

On Friday nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 200,000 with the unemployment rate down to 7.5%. I will be focusing on the growth of part time jobs versus full time jobs.

On July 24 I profiled 13 stocks in Amazon, GM and 3M Earnings Preview. These stocks reported earnings results on Thursday, and here's my scorecard for 12 of the July 25 field of stocks:

Amazon.com ( AMZN) ($312.01) missed EPS estimates by 6 cents reporting a loss of 2 cents after the close on Thursday. The stock traded as low as $294.72 in afterhours trading. After a lower open on Friday, Amazon shares surged to a new all time high at $313.62. Buy-and-trade investors could capture this volatility buying at my monthly value level at $295.46, and then booking profits between my semiannual risky levels at $313.60 and $324.33. Amazon has been downgraded to sell this morning.

Colgate Palmolive ( CL) ($60.25) matched EPS estimates earning 70 cents a share, but the stock penetrated and held its 50-day SMA at $58.87 on Thursday then traded up to $60.26 on Friday. This buy rated stock has a weekly pivot at $59.58 and monthly risky level at $82.75.

Cirrus Logic ( CRUS) ($17.73) beat EPS estimates by 8 cents earning 47 cents a share but missed on revenue. The stock remains buy rated and traded as low as $17.36 on Friday. My annual value level is $13.35 with a weekly pivot at $17.86 and annual risky level at $20.74.

General Motors ( GM) ($36.67) beat EPS estimates by 8 cents earning 84 cents a share premarket on Thursday. The stock traded up to a new multi-year high at $37.71 then slipped to $36.46 on Friday. My semiannual value level is $34.41 with a weekly pivot at $36.30.

Harley Davidson ( HOG) ($55.37) beat EPS estimates by 4 cents earning $1.21 a share premarket on Thursday. The stock traded up to $59.52 versus the multi-year high at $59.84 set on May 20 then dropped to $54.83 on Friday holding its 50-day SMA at $54.85. My weekly value level is $54.40 with a semiannual pivot at $55.81 and monthly risky level at $58.34, which was tested at the post-earnings high.

International Paper ( IP) ($49.11) missed EPS estimates by 3 cents earning 52 cents a share premarket on Thursday. The stock set a new multi-year high at $50.33 post-earnings before consolidating on Friday. My semiannual value level is $46.92 with a semiannual risky level at $50.08, which was tested at the post-earnings high.

3M ( MMM) ($116.91) beat EPS estimates by a penny earning $1.71 a share premarket on Thursday. This buy rated Dow component dipped to $114.84 holding my semiannual value level at $115.00 then rebounded on Friday staying below the multi-year high at $117.30 set on July 23 with my monthly risky level at $118.70.

Newmont Mining ( NEM) ($30.38) missed EPS estimate by 51 cents swinging to a loss of 10 cents a share. The stock dipped to $28.50 on Friday then rebounded. My weekly value level is $26.16 with a quarterly risky level at $40.92.

Starbucks ( SBUX) ($73.36) beat EPS estimates by 2 cents earning 55 cents a share. This buy rated stock gapped higher on Friday to a new multi-year high at $73.52. My quarterly value level is $68.25 with a weekly pivot at $73.26 and semiannual risky level at $75.66.

Under Armour ( UA) ($68.53) beat EPS estimates by 2 cents earning 16 cents a share premarket on Thursday. The stock set a new multi-year high at $69.55 then consolidated on Friday. My weekly value level is $61.59 with a semiannual pivot at $66.00.

Weyerhaeuser ( WY) ($28.80) beat EPS estimates by 5 cents earning 35 cents a share premarket on Friday. The stock tried to get above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs converged at $29.29 and $29.28 but failed to do so. A bearish crossover looms if the 50-day falls below the 200-day. My weekly value level is $27.64 with an annual pivot at $28.69 and monthly risky level at $30.89.

Zynga ( ZNGA) ($3.01) beat EPS estimates by 3 cents with a loss of 4 cents a share. The stock fell below its 50-day SMA at $3.16 but closed Friday above its 200-day SMA at $2.92. The low of $2.85 held my weekly value level at $2.88. This week's value level is $2.70 with a monthly risky level at $3.63.

Stocks continue to trade under a ValuEngine valuation warning with 76.0% of all stocks overvalued, 43.5% are overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are overvalued, 14 by double-digit percentages.

Here is my table of data for the eight stocks reporting results on Wednesday:

Reading the Table

OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.

Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.

Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.

Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength.

Con-Way ( CNW) ($41.02) set a multi-year high at $42.35 on July 15. This sell rated trucker has a semiannual value level at $33.87 with a semiannual pivot at $41.77 and weekly risky level at $42.52.

Curtiss-Wright ( CW) ($41.01) set its 2013 high at $41.52 on July 22. This stock has a strong sell rating with a semiannual value level at $36.77 with an annual pivot at $41.19 and annual risky level at $46.51.

Delphi Automotive ( DLPH) ($55.72) set a multi-year high at $55.80 on Friday. This sell rated stock has a monthly pivot at $56.02 and a weekly risky level at $56.91.

Garmin ( GRMN) ($36.83) set a multi-year low $32.52 on April 22. My weekly pivot is $36.50 with a quarterly risky level at $43.58.

Hess ( HES) ($73.20) set a multi-year high at $74.50 on July 22. My semiannual value level is $68.10 with a weekly pivot at $71.55 and monthly risky level at $76.72.

Humana ( HUM) ($89.74) set a 2013 high at $91.61 on July 24. This buy rated stock has a quarterly value level at $76.55 with an annual pivot at $89.78 and annual risky level at $91.58.

MasterCard ( MA) ($598.15) set a multi-year high at $604.85 on July 23. My semiannual value level is $593.61 with a weekly pivot at $600.58 and monthly risky level at $612.29.

Whole Foods Market ( WFM) ($55.97) set a multi-year high at $56.83 on July 17. This buy rated stock has a weekly pivot at $55.44 and a monthly risky level at $59.94.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.

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