The five stocks in today's table are all rated hold with three overvalued by more than 20%. Four have double-digit gains of 13.0% to 85.7% over the last 12 months. With hold ratings these stocks can be up or down by 5.0% over the next 12 months. Four out of five are trading above their 200-day SMA reflecting the risk of a reversion to the mean. Aetna ( AET) ($65.58) set a multi-year high at $66.00 on July 24. My monthly value level is $63.19. Cummins ( CMI) ($116.58) traded down from $122.31 on May 31 then down to $105.55 on June 24. My quarterly value level is $100.94 with a monthly risky level at $127.74. Merck ( MRK) ($48.17) set a multi-year high at $50.16 on June 4 then as low as $46.03 on July 2. My annual value level is $46.99 with a quarterly pivot at $47.75 and semiannual risky level at $51.80.
United States Steel ( X) ($18.77) set its 2013 high at $26.29 on Jan. 3 and its 2013 low at $15.80 on April 22. My weekly value level is $17.13 with a monthly risky level at $19.31. At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.Follow @SuttmeierThis article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.