Will Google and Microsoft Earnings Trump QE?

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The major equity averages set new all-time highs or multi-year highs on Thursday as Fed Chief Bernanke continued his pledge to keep interest rates low and to buy $85 billion in U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-back securities monthly in what we call QE3 and QE4.

It seemed like Fed policy would trump negative earnings reports, but did that change after the close on Thursday with negative earnings from an old technology company and a new technology giant?

So far during second quarter earnings season when a company missed earnings estimates or offered cautious comments their stock would get a share price cut for a day or two. Companies that maintained their buy ratings post earnings would continue to have upside potential even after a negative reaction to earnings.

Now that Bernanke comments are history, let's return our focus to the real news, earnings, starting with the past two days.

Capital One Financial ( COF) ($67.05) beat estimates by 33 cents earning $2.07 per share in a report released after the close on Thursday. The stock traded up to $68.55 after-hours. My semiannual risky level is $78.87. This earning report is another example of how monetary policy helps the big banks but does not help the Main Street economy. Capital One has a hold rating and is 29.3% overvalued after gaining 22.2% over the last 12 months.

Google ( GOOG) ($910.68) traded to an all time high at $928.00 on July 15 in anticipation of great earnings as Wall Street upped their price targets to $1,000. The stock missed estimates by $1.29 earning $7.75 per share and the stock slumped by 5.5% to $860.62 afterhours. Google also missed on the revenue line. The negative reaction pushed the stock below my semiannual pivots at $892.48 and $880.49. The high was a failed test of my quarterly and monthly pivots at $915.63 and $922.67. The 200-day simple moving average is $784.93. Google has a hold rating and is 29.8% overvalued after gaining 56.8% over the last 12 months going into this earnings report.

Intuitive Surgical ( ISRG) ($421.47) missed estimates by 15 cents earning $3.90 per share. The stock traded down 12.0% to $371.00 in after-hours trading. The stock is below all of my pivots with my annual pivot at $475.74. The stock has a buy rating and is 11.1% undervalued and is down 23.3% over the last 12 months going into this earnings report.

Morgan Stanley ( MS) ($27.70) beat EPS estimates by 2 cents earning 45 cents per share reported premarket on Thursday. The stock traded to a new multi-year high at $27.95 on Thursday. My weekly value level is $25.75 with a monthly pivot at $27.13 and semiannual risky level at $29.47. Morgan Stanley has a hold rating and is 34.7% overvalued and is up 98.0% over the last 12 months.

Microsoft ( MSFT) ($35.44) missed estimates by 15 cents earning 59 cents per share. The company also missed on the revenue line. Shares fell 6.3% in after hours trading down to $33.20. My monthly value level is $32.41 with quarterly and semiannual pivots at $33.52 and $33.95 and a semiannual risky level at $35.89 versus the July 16 multi-year high at $36.42. Microsoft has a hold rating and is 25.1% overvalued and is up 16.4% over the last 12 months going into this earnings report.

UnitedHealth Group ( UNH) ($70.55) beat estimates by 15 cents earning $1.40 per share premarket on Thursday. The stock set a new multi-year high at $70.85 vs. my semiannual risky level at $73.01. My semiannual value level is $62.39. UnitedHealth has a hold rating and is 24.5% overvalued and is up 25.2% over the last 12 months.

Union Pacific ( UNP) ($161.36) beat estimates by 2 cents earning $2.37 per share reporting premarket on Thursday. The stock set a new multi-year high at $162.30 versus my semiannual risky level at $167.94. My monthly value level is $159.33. Union Pacific has a sell rating and is 20.6% overvalued and is up 36.1% over the last 12 months.

Verizon Communications ( VZ) ($49.97) matched estimates premarket on Thursday earning 73 cents per share. The stock declined to $49.19 versus my semiannual pivot at $49.86. My weekly value level is $47.35 with a semiannual pivot at $49.86 and monthly risky level at $50.86. Verizon has a buy rating and is just 1.4% overvalued and is up 8.9% over the last 12 months. >

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

Richard Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a master of science from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. In 1981 he formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild and helped establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. Richard began writing market research in 1984 and held positions as market strategist at firms such as Smith Barney, William R Hough, Joseph Stevens, and Rightside Advisors. He joined www.ValuEngine.com in 2008 producing newsletters covering the U.S. capital markets, and a universe of more than 7,000 stocks. Richard employs a "buy and trade" investment strategy and can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com.

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