2013 has been a pretty miserable year for Petrobras ( PBR). Since the calendar flipped over to January, shares of the $91 billion Brazilian oil and gas company have dropped more than 28%, versus a double-digit rally in the rest of the stock market. But investors could finally be in for a reprieve - recent price action in PBR points to a potential reversal this week.

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Petrobras is currently forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a reversal pattern that's formed by two swing lows that bottom out at approximately the same level (shoulders), separated by a lower low between them (the head). The buy signal comes on a breakout above the neckline, which is right at $14 for PBR; if this setup triggers, it comes with a price target at $16.

There are a lot of inputs affecting PBR's price - including prices for the energy commodities that the firm pulls out of the ground and the economic situation in Brazil. Focusing on this stock's price action essentially shortcuts trying to weigh all of those disparate factors. They're already priced in.

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