@adamfeuerstein @chasingthealpha The ratio of short positions to cover (vs) new longs in this offering is prob 4:1— Colfax (@ColfaxCapital) July 8, 2013Dan Rosenblum, one of my favorite healthcare traders, also believes many shorts will declare victory and cover, particularly since the risk-reward starts to look less favorable with Amarin at $5.
at $5 i think $AMRN 2 points down on no Anchor approval $8-10 up on approval, odds getting better— Dan Rosenblum (@sharkbiotech) July 8, 2013Shorts may be inclined to cover their winning positions but will other investors want to actually own Amarin? In a regulatory filing Monday night, Amarin said Vascepa scripts for the second quarter (April through June) totaled just over 46,700, according to estimates compiled by a third-party data provider. A wholesale acquisition cost of $184 per script implies second-quarter sales of $8.6 million, or just above current (but already lowered) analyst consensus of $8.3 million, according to S&P CapitalIQ. Actual reported Vascepa sales for the June quarter will could easily fall short of consensus given Amarin's liberal use of discounts and rebates during the early months of the launch. Vascepa sales are growing month over month on an absolute basis, but the rate of growth has slowed considerably and is approaching zero way too fast for a product on the market for only six months.
$AMRN Vascepa Rx growth (month over month) since launch: 125%, 70%, 31%, 14%— Adam Feuerstein (@adamfeuerstein) July 8, 2013-- Reported by Adam Feuerstein in Boston. Follow @AdamFeuerstein