SPDR S&P 500 ETF

First up is our go-to proxy for the broad market, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY). SPY essentially trades in lock-step with its benchmark index, a market metric that's been under heavy scrutiny over the last few months as a big correction took shape. Now, though, I think that the outlook for the S&P is a lot more cut and dry.

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The S&P had been in a very well-defined uptrend since all the way back in November, but that uptrend broke in June when the big index fell below its 50-day moving average. Since then, SPY has been making lower highs. That's a downtrend in my book.

Despite many attempts over the last few days, SPY has been hitting its head on newfound support at the 50-day moving average. If the 50-day can swat the index lower, then more downside is a pretty obvious conclusion. More importantly, new trendline resistance (marked in red) connecting the highs in SPY needs to get taken out before stocks are in anything but a downtrend. The downtrend in momentumadds some extra evidence of that.

To be clear, I don't think we're in store for a bear market from here, but this corrective period isn't showing signs of abating at this point. Caveat emptor.

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