I understood that it was the first time the stock had broken the 30-cent level since November of the previous year. Many didn't know what I already knew -- the worst was over. The stock reached a high on that day at 38 cents per share and closed at 33 cents. But it was just the beginning. Sirius' execution during the entire 2009 was "mixed," to put it mildly. A stock does not flirt with death because expectations are high. What sort of realistic demands can there be during a recovery? The economy had not yet seen the worst and auto sales were plummeting fast. Sirius was hemorrhaging subscribers each quarter and its CEO, Mel Karmazin, couldn't stop the bleeding.
After a stunning second-quarter report, during which management raised guidance, $2 per share was never seen or heard from again. Sirius had bigger fish to fry. Investors still remind me of my $1.65 prediction, even though I was off by only 8%. But my biggest gaffe was missing the ride up to $3 and to the $3.60 level. Essentially, since reaching $1.80, the stock has more than doubled. What can I say? I blew it.