GLD), will test $100 before $200. In other words, GLD hasn't reached the bottom yet. I'm not nearly as bearish with silver, as shown by iShares Silver Trust ( SLV), though. Don't take it the wrong way, it's not a deal yet, but it may bottom out in 2013. The key takeaway with buying dips is that they generally fall further than they "should." The markets are based primarily on emotion in the short term and fundamentals over the long term.
Your most reliable compass for inflation is energy prices. You can track energy using United States Oil Fund ETF ( USO) and United States Natural Gas Fund ETF ( UNG). Without rising energy prices, inflation will remain tame. Without inflation fear, inflation hedges including gold and silver will trade closer to their industrial use price equilibrium. For reference, you can use $22 as a marker for UNG. When natural gas prices are falling to levels that push UNG under $22, it suggests near zero inflation. A sub-$22 UNG means some production rigs will remain or become offline because producers won't receive the return needed to justify operation. can read it here. At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Follow @RobertWeinstein This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.