If SocGen is right and the company surprises with its Z10 sales in the quarter, the stock will unquestionably fly on the earnings, and the many shorts will be forced to quickly cover, adding some accelerant to the fire. I think the Z10 numbers will surprise (along with early Q10 shipments). BlackBerry has been adept at figuring out ways to make its numbers look great in the last few earnings calls, and I would expect them to stuff as many new devices into the channel as they can -- figuring they're eventually going to sell them anyways. Unlike SocGen, I don't think the BB7s will fall off a cliff -- although the sooner they go, the better. To me, it looks like a really safe bet that BlackBerry will beat on the bottom line. I'm less sure on the top line. We will see. At the time of publication, Jackson was long BlackBerry.This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.