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NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Just how much downside is left in the market? Jim Cramer told "Mad Money" viewers Thursday it all depends on Friday's non-farm payroll numbers. Get the right number and all could be well, but get the wrong number and the selling will continue. Cramer explained the target non-farm payroll number is 160,000 new jobs. Above that number and the market will sell off on fear interest rates are on the rise. But below that number the market will sell off because the economy is weaker than we thought. That only leaves a small window for success, said Cramer, which is why he's calculating tomorrow's worst-case scenario. The last leg of the market's rally began in February, said Cramer, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average sat at 13,800. The move was spurred by a wave of takeovers from the likes of Warren Buffett, Comcast ( CMCSA) and Dell ( DELL). Of the stocks in the Dow, Cramer noted there are only 11 that are up huge since February and are therefore at risk for big declines. He said American Express ( AXP), Boeing ( BA) and Cisco ( CSCO) are likely to hold onto their gains, but others including Hewlett-Packard ( HPQ), 3M ( MMM) and IBM ( IBM) could see their gains wiped out in minutes. Calculating the worst case for all of these Dow stocks, Cramer said he's expecting a 600-point selloff if tomorrow's employment number goes awry. That may seem like a big plummet, he said, but it's only a 3% to 4% decline that would send the markets back to Dow 14,360, a more than reasonable level if you're prepared for it.
Krispy Kreme: Jim MorganIn the "Executive Decision" segment, Cramer spoke with Jim Morgan, chairman, president and CEO of Krispy Kreme ( KKD), a stock that's up 46% since Cramer got behind it in January. Krispy Kreme recently reported a four-cents-a-share earnings beat on an 11.4% rise in same-store sales. Morgan said turning Krispy Kreme around wasn't an option, it was a necessity, but fortunately the company had a great brand with great team members already in place to help make returning to growth easy. He said the company was looking for three things before it jump-started growth plans: strong franchisees, a solid platform for success and thriving existing franchisees. Now that Krispy Kreme has all three it's no wonder same-store sales are on the rise, said Morgan.
But Morgan cautioned that Krispy Kreme won't be delivering 11% growth every quarter, although he expects 4% to 6% growth is attainable. He said the company is trying new ways to bring customers in at different times of day and its specialty coffees are performing very well. International sales are another strong point for Krispy Kreme, said Morgan. Finally, when asked how the company sees itself in a world that is becoming increasingly health-oriented, Morgan said he views Krispy Kreme as a treat, an indulgence that can be enjoyed in moderation. There's more to life than just physical health, he said, and donuts clearly increase one's emotional health. Cramer said he continues to be a believer in Krispy Kreme's turnaround and growth efforts.
Action Alerts PLUS. Cramer said that as unlikely as it seems, the new Kraft Foods ( KRFT), which is now a domestic food player after its own breakup, is also a potential suitor for Post. As for valuation, Cramer said using the Heinz valuation, Post is worth $3.1 billion, or $63 a share. But using a more conservative number, $53 a share, or a 25% increase in value, is very likely.
A Perfect TargetThe market is still in love with takeovers, Cramer told viewers, which is why a company such as Post Holdings ( POST) is the perfect target now that the markets have pulled back hard. Cramer explained that Post, keeper of iconic cereal brands including Honey Combs, Raisin Bran, Shredded Wheat and, his personal fave, Fruity Pebbles, was sold to Ralcorp ( RAH) by the old Kraft Foods in 2008, only to be spun off again as an independent company in 2012. Since then, Post has been holding its own but not performing overly well as the company is, frankly, too small to stay independent, said Cramer. Given the current wave of food mergers and consolidation, Cramer said Post is a natural prime target for the likes of Berkshire Hathaway ( BRK.B), which just bought Heinz, or Pinnacle Foods ( PF), a stock Cramer owns for his charitable trust,