Gundlach: Markets 'Only Going to Get More Interesting'

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach thinks it's been "an interesting year so far, and it's only going to get more interesting."

In his mid-year presentation on the state of the markets, entitled: "What in the World is Going On?" Gundlach noted that things have changed and become more interesting since the middle of May (coincidentally, when I interviewed him at DoubleLine's headquarters in Los Angeles).

Gundlach touched on global growth, which has slowed in recent weeks and months. Most of the growth is coming from the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and emerging markets, but China's numbers are a little suspect. "I don't believe growth is above 6% in China," Gundlach said. "I believe China is fabricating numbers."

He noted that, in 2007, global GDP was running around 5%, but now it's around 2%, and that's one of the major problems the world is facing. He believes it's also the fundamental idea behind the Japanese debasement.

Touching on the yen, Gundlach thinks the currency is going to stay persistently weak and could go to 200, but it might take more than 5 years to get there. The Japanese stock market has gone from 8,500 to nearly 16,000 in the middle of May, but now it's correcting. He thinks the "the Japanese stock market has had it for the time being," and "it deserves a correction." He did note, however, that now is not the time to exit the Nikkei, even if it goes lower in the short-term. A good entry point would be around 12,500 or 12,800, and investors could potentially see 10% returns if they buy around that level. "You don't have a huge rally like you've had in the Nikkei and see it collapse all the way," Gundlach said. "If you're going to be long the Japanese market, you HAVE to be short the yen."

Much of Japan's rally has been due to quantitative easing, which is a subject of much interest domestically. While Gundlach thinks the Federal Reserve will reduce QE, it will happen because it's being matched with the federal deficit, so it makes sense to "right-size" QE to finance the deficit. He does not believe, however, that experimental monetary policies are going to fully go away.

If the Fed does indeed start to taper, Gundlach said "it's crystal clear there's a correlation between the S&P 500 and the expansion of Fed balance sheet." If tapering occurs, the S&P 500 could slow down, but he doesn't think bond yields would move much higher and it might be time for capital preservation, as opposed to returns on capital.

He sees a 2.3% or 2.35% yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond later this year, but said at the end of the presentation that the yield would be around 1.7%.

In the presentation, Gundlach noted that housing has been positively impacted by the Fed and low interest rates, but refinancing has come down since interest rates started moving higher. If interest rates continue to rise, this would be a disaster for the housing recovery, especially since inventory is so low.

Touching on some housing-related stocks, Gundlach doesn't like the homebuilders, citing the price of lumber versus their stocks. Mortgage real estate investment trusts (of which he doesn't own any) could also be hit in the short-term, with their dividends going down. He said he'd buy back shares of Annaly Capital Management ( NLY) around $12. Annaly Capital Management shares closed Tuesday at $13.61, up 0.81%.

-- Written by Chris Ciaccia in New York

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