Winners and Losers From Google's Texas-Sized Initiative

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Google's ( GOOG) latest step into smartphones may result in minor bleeding by Apple ( AAPL), but could result in tourniquets for Nokia ( NOK) and BlackBerry ( BBRY).

If you haven't read the news yet, Google announced that Motorola Mobility (owned by Google) is in the process of hiring workers to produce a U.S.-assembled smartphone. The plant is located in Texas (I guess everything is bigger in Texas) and will be the biggest smartphone factory within the U.S.

The Fort Worth plant is more or less the only smartphone factory, so gaining the title wasn't much of a challenge. Most of the more than 1,000 parts needed will be imported for final assembly. Even baby steps in the right direction are better than no steps.

More important for investors in the smartphone space is the impact on others.

We know from Nokia and more recently from BlackBerry that producing an impressive "it's the best you gotta have it" phone will push the share price up for a few months. Without an expeditious and equally strong followup product, the lifting catalyst fades away like my three-year-old's balloon he received two weeks ago. My son continues to hold the balloon long after it fell back to the ground (kicking it in frustration as he walks by because it won't levitate any longer). Not unlike some BBRY investors who jumped on the bandwagon ahead of BlackBerry's 10 release, but didn't exit in time.

I wrote "BlackBerry Isn't a 10 for Investors" warning investors not chase the company higher. In it I said the company's "shares are likely to spike higher during the week of BlackBerry 10's release. What may turn into the biggest catalyst for what may be a significant rise is short sellers and not the phone...."

The best play, I said, "appears to be buying shares now, and closing out the position either the day before, day of, or day after BBRY releases the new phone. This is a classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news type of event. Just don't get caught up in the hoopla of the phone and believe it will last more than a month or two..."

Regardless of how great of a phone Motorola can produce, it's unlikely to have a meaningful and lasting impact on Google's share price. An unusually strong Motorola phone may impact Apple slightly, but Nokia and BlackBerry investors should be particularly distraught.

It's unlikely that Motorola will deliver a phone that doesn't include two scoops of "wow" -- so whose market share is most vulnerable? HTC, Samsung, LG, Nokia, and BlackBerry make it on my list of the biggest losers.

Interestingly, I can visualize Microsoft ( MSFT) becoming an unintended beneficiary of increased Motorola presence. What Microsoft losses from fewer sales of existing models with Windows OS, it may more than make up from greater manufacturing interest to switch from the Android platform to a Microsoft-based OS.

Keep an eye on manufacturer reactions after the launch. If Microsoft convinces manufacturers currently installing Android that they are sleeping with the enemy, the Redmond software company may turn into a big winner. This could be the opening Microsoft needs to capture the critical mass of users needed to effectively compete in the space.

If you're a current BlackBery or Nokia investor, look to lock in profits ahead of the Motorola U.S.-based launch, or be prepared to ride out the volatility.

At the time of publication the author had no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article was written by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.